Technological forecasting, Telecommunication, Wireless communication systems
The number of wireless mobile communication service subscribers has reached 4.6 billion worldwide in 2009, and mobile revenues are expected to be over $1 trillion around 2012 according to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) (ITU, 2010). A significant number of studies have been done to forecast the growing market and evaluate the new generation technology, the Beyond 3 Generation (B3G). However, there is no study forecasting when any of these new technologies will be commercialized. This paper presents a technical framework for forecasting the commercialization timeline of B3G technologies and provides insight on technology trajectories from 1G to 4G. The results show that a combination of technical parameters can explain heterogeneous wireless mobile communication technologies. Three parameters selected include channel bandwidth, channel bit rate, and data capacity for technical framework.
Kim, Jisun; Daim, Tugrul; and Anderson, Timothy R., "A Look into the Future of Wireless Mobile Communication Technologies" (2010). Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations. Paper 42. http://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/9646