Published In

Technological Forecasting & Social Change

Document Type

Post-Print

Publication Date

11-2006

Subjects

Technological forecasting, Data envelopment analysis, Technological innovations -- Measurement

Abstract

Since its inception in 2001, technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA) has been used with a number of applications. This paper presents a formal comparison of TFDEA to a previously published application from Technological Forecasting and Social Change by Joseph Martino. Using the data and Martino’s multiple regression model, we compare results obtained from TFDEA to those previously published. Both techniques predict the first flights of fighter jets introduced between 1960 and 1982 by using the first flights of aircraft introduced between 1944 and 1960. TFDEA was found to better predict the first flight dates than the forecast using multiple regression. These results indicate that TFDEA may be a powerful new technique for predicting complex technological trends and time to market for new products.

Description

NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Technological Forecasting & Social Change. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication.

A definitive version was subsequently published in Technological Forecasting & Social Change, Nov 2006, Volume: 73 Issue: 9 pp.1178-1187. DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2006.05.013

DOI

10.1016/j.techfore.2006.05.013

Persistent Identifier

http://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/9811

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