Document Type

Closed Project

Publication Date

Fall 2016

Instructor

Jisun Kim

Course Title

Technology Forecasting

Course Number

ETM 532/632

Subjects

Energy storage, Electric batteries, Lithium ion batteries -- Applications to demand-response systems, Technological forecasting

Abstract

This paper examines the multi-perspective criteria affecting the adoption of energy storage technologies, specifically lead-acid and lithium-ion battery technologies, in Demand Response systems. These criteria are incorporated into a multi-perspective analysis using a Hierarchical Decision Model (HDM) to identify the key criterion influencing the adoption lead-acid vs. lithium-ion technology for the Demand-Response usage scenario. With cost-efficiency being identified by the HDM as the key criterion, the cost efficiency of lithium-ion battery technology is modeled, showing that lithium-ion technology may potentially achieve price-parity with lead-acid technology by 2025. Predicated on this improved price efficiency over the next 10 years, a Bass Diffusion Model is generated, which predicts significant adoption of lithium-ion battery technology for both Demand Response (DR) and Uninterruptible Power Supply (UPS) usage scenarios. The model forecasts cumulative sales of $100 million USD over the next 10 years, and achieving peak single-year sales of $75 million USD in 2031. We conclude with the implications of this shift in technologies, and recommendations for further research.

Rights

In Copyright. URI: http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ This Item is protected by copyright and/or related rights. You are free to use this Item in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s).

Comments

This project is only available to students, staff, and faculty of Portland State University

Persistent Identifier

http://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/21345

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