Document Type

Closed Project

Publication Date

Fall 2013


Jisun Kim

Course Title

Technology Forecasting

Course Number

ETM 532


Electric Vehicles (EVs) have been introduced into the market for almost a century and are now gaining more attention due to regulations and environmental concerns. However EVs have not yet become mainstreamdue to theshort trip ranges, long charging times, high costs, and poor durability of batteries. In an effort to encourage consumers to purchase EVs, the government has been funding research to solve some of these problems. Specifically, government has been heavily investing in Research and Development (R&D) of EV battery technologies with a wide variety of battery chemistries. The battery technologies were evaluated using data mining to identify leading countries, key research organizations, and current technology emphasis for each R&D stage. In this study, a few technical characteristics of batteries were considered, including specific energy, specific power, and cost to forecast the technological progress in relation to the Department of Energy (DOE)goals for EVs. Due to the lack of required technical characteristics for battery technologies, alternative performance data for EVs were collected, including Miles Per Gallon equivalent (MPGe), acceleration, battery weight, and EV price. For this paper, Technology Forecasting Using Data Envelopment Analysis (TFDEA) was used to forecast future battery performance characteristics.The results were compared against the performance goals established by the DOE. This study showed that the current advancements in EV battery technologies would not meet the DOE requirement with respects to EV range, due to a low average Rate of Change (RoC). Therefore,a new technology must be developed that will increase the current rate of technological advancement.


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