Prognosticating Offending in Early Adulthood: How Early Can We Predict?

Authors

Thomas A. Loughran, Pennsylvania State University
Megan Augustyn, The University of Texas at San Antonio
Mauri Matsuda, Portland State UniversityFollow
Kimberly L. Henry, Colorado State University

Sponsor

Support for the Rochester Youth Development Study has been provided by the National Institute on Drug Abuse (R01DA05512), the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention (86-JN-CX-0007, 96-MU-FX-0014, 2004-MU-FX-0062), the National Science Foundation (SBR-9123299), and the National Institute of Mental Health (R01MH63386). Technical assistance for this project also was provided by an NICHD Grant (R24HD044943) to the Center for Social and Demographic Analysis at the University at Albany.

Published In

Journal of Quantitative Criminology

Document Type

Citation

Publication Date

11-27-2022

Abstract

Introduction/Aim: Extant tests of developmental theories have largely refrained from moving past testing models of association to building models of prediction, as have other fields with an intervention focus. With this in mind, we test the prognostic capacity to predict offending outcomes in early adulthood derived from various developmental theories.

Methods: Using 734 subjects from the Rochester Youth Development Study (RYDS), we use out-of-sample predictions based on 5-fold cross-validation and compare the sensitivity, specifcity and positive predictive value of three different prognostic models to predict arrest and serious, persistent offending in early adulthood. The first uses only predictors measures in early adolescence, the second uses dynamic trajectories of delinquency from ages 14–22, and the third uses a combination of the two. We further consider how early in adolescence the trajectory models calibrate prediction.

Results: Both the early adolescent risk factor only model and the dynamic trajectory model were poor at prognosticating both arrest and persistent offending in early adulthood, which is manifest in the large rate of false positive cases.

Conclusion: Furthermore, existing developmental theories would be well served to move beyond cataloging risk factors and draw more heavily on refinements, including a greater focus on human agency in life course patterns of offending.

Rights

© 2022 Springer Nature Switzerland AG. Part of Springer Nature.

Locate the Document

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-022-09561-w

DOI

10.1007/s10940-022-09561-w

Persistent Identifier

https://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/38997

Citation Details

Loughran, T. A., Augustyn, M., Matsuda, M., & Henry, K. L. (2022). Prognosticating Offending in Early Adulthood: How Early Can We Predict?. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 1-31.