Validation of an ANN Flow Prediction Model Using a Multt-Station Cluster Analysis

Authors

Mehmet Demirel, Portland State UniversityFollow
Martijn Booij, University of Twente
Ercan Kahya, Istanbul Technical UniversityFollow

Published In

Journal of Hydrologic Engineering

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

2-2012

Subjects

Hydrologic models -- Evaluation

Abstract

The objective of this study is to validate a flow prediction model for a hydrometric station using a multistation criterion in addition to standard single-station performance criteria. In this contribution we used cluster analysis to identify the regional flow height, i.e., water-level patterns and validate the output of an artificial neural network (ANN) model of the Alportel River in Portugal. Measurements of precipitation, temperature, and flow height were used as input variables to the ANN model with a lead time of 12 h. The lead time of 12 h is assumed to be appropriate for a short-term hydrological prediction since it is meaningful for physical processes. The ANN model with three inputs, four hidden neurons, and ten epochs was tested using the new model-validation criterion. The high performance of the model (i.e., Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient is equal to 0.922) was confirmed by the cluster-analysis criterion. It can be concluded that a multistation-based approach can be used as an additional validation criterion and might result in a rejection of a model which initially passed a single-station validation criterion.

Description

Copyright 2012 ASCE.

*At the time of publication Mehmet C. Demirel was affiliated with the University of Twente

DOI

10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000426

Persistent Identifier

http://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/20832

Citation Details

Demirel, M., Booij, M., and Kahya, E. (2012). "Validation of an ANN Flow Prediction Model Using a Multistation Cluster Analysis." J. Hydrol. Eng., 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000426, 262-271.