1 00:00:02,760 --> 00:00:08,780 All right, well, welcome everybody to the system science writing Seminar Series. 2 00:00:08,780 --> 00:00:12,805 Today we have a double graduate of system science or rainmaker, 3 00:00:12,805 --> 00:00:16,022 here with our silver and what's it called though? 4 00:00:16,022 --> 00:00:18,402 It's called the research- >> Regional Research- 5 00:00:18,402 --> 00:00:19,643 >> Regional Research Institute. 6 00:00:19,643 --> 00:00:21,310 >> Regional Research Institute. 7 00:00:21,310 --> 00:00:22,880 >> There it is right on the screen. 8 00:00:22,880 --> 00:00:24,940 So I'm gonna let her introduce herself, 9 00:00:24,940 --> 00:00:29,230 any further issue you might want to and then just right into the topic. 10 00:00:30,450 --> 00:00:34,036 >> Yeah, so I was gonna say that realist evaluation is something that I know very 11 00:00:34,036 --> 00:00:37,581 little about, I'm just learning but there was room who knew a lot about it. 12 00:00:37,581 --> 00:00:41,912 So am hoping that you can correct me if I misstep, 13 00:00:41,912 --> 00:00:46,139 I do know a fair amount about interventions, so 14 00:00:46,139 --> 00:00:49,326 [LAUGH] I can guide you to some parts. 15 00:00:49,326 --> 00:00:54,474 So I am a research assistant professor over at regional Research Institute for 16 00:00:54,474 --> 00:00:59,232 Human Services under the School of Social Work, but I am an alumni here so 17 00:00:59,232 --> 00:01:00,792 I'm really, really, 18 00:01:00,792 --> 00:01:05,573 being back in this building makes me feel super warm and fuzzy [LAUGH] I do. 19 00:01:05,573 --> 00:01:07,614 >> [LAUGH] >> [LAUGH] [CROSSTALK] [LAUGH] 20 00:01:07,614 --> 00:01:10,006 >> It feels like coming home. 21 00:01:10,006 --> 00:01:11,691 I really like this equipment. 22 00:01:11,691 --> 00:01:16,551 So I'm a public health social services intervention 23 00:01:16,551 --> 00:01:22,059 research so everything I do is direct collaboration 24 00:01:22,059 --> 00:01:27,300 with populations who are affected by the services. 25 00:01:27,300 --> 00:01:33,760 I have a pretty strong disability justice, meaning I'm inside a researcher. 26 00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:38,690 So I'm going to bring up something that I research and I'm pretty into science for 27 00:01:38,690 --> 00:01:40,070 social justice. 28 00:01:40,070 --> 00:01:46,660 Kind of PPC for my T shirt, and I was a toddler. 29 00:01:48,060 --> 00:01:54,225 So these are two of my main projects and my biggest project is a spy. 30 00:01:54,225 --> 00:01:58,375 And we have a an intervention that's just healthcare toolkit. 31 00:01:59,605 --> 00:02:04,725 It's a psycho information about health services and a tool for 32 00:02:04,725 --> 00:02:10,610 healthcare providers to better accommodate autistic adults in healthcare settings. 33 00:02:10,610 --> 00:02:13,160 And I'm just working right now in the formative 34 00:02:13,160 --> 00:02:15,970 stages of an intervention on top of the mid skilled employment. 35 00:02:15,970 --> 00:02:20,070 I ended up not talking a whole lot about that for the rest of the talk, but talk 36 00:02:20,070 --> 00:02:24,410 a lot more about the early assessments for the Alliance Visa Connections Project. 37 00:02:24,410 --> 00:02:27,940 Which is an intervention that I collaborated with 38 00:02:27,940 --> 00:02:29,600 the early psychosis community. 39 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:36,152 So these are young adults who have experienced first episode psychosis and 40 00:02:36,152 --> 00:02:42,185 we created a peer developed, peer driven, online intervention for 41 00:02:42,185 --> 00:02:46,657 people who are new to the program to welcome them and 42 00:02:46,657 --> 00:02:52,170 do make them kind of destigmatized, psychosis a little bit and 43 00:02:52,170 --> 00:02:58,953 kind of help them gain entry into the program by peer delivered information. 44 00:02:58,953 --> 00:03:00,558 What is an intervention research? 45 00:03:00,558 --> 00:03:06,749 This is always a very wide group of people, wide areas, 46 00:03:06,749 --> 00:03:13,620 everything from mathematical abstraction to acupuncture. 47 00:03:14,780 --> 00:03:18,669 So, is intervention research kind of a new word for most people? 48 00:03:18,669 --> 00:03:20,192 Or is this, okay, so 49 00:03:20,192 --> 00:03:25,960 I'm gonna give just a little bit of a background on what I'm talking about here. 50 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:32,160 So, intervention research is research that is meant to explore development 51 00:03:32,160 --> 00:03:37,330 test programs that are designed to affect some kind of a specified outcome. 52 00:03:37,330 --> 00:03:39,790 So it can be really straightforward. 53 00:03:39,790 --> 00:03:43,040 If you think about current trials, those are interventions for 54 00:03:43,040 --> 00:03:44,900 some kind of a medical thing. 55 00:03:44,900 --> 00:03:48,310 But they could also be really complex, which is the kind of stuff I do research 56 00:03:48,310 --> 00:03:53,550 to explore developing testing program to improve long term career outcomes for 57 00:03:53,550 --> 00:03:59,060 autistic professionals which has all of the real world complexity to it. 58 00:03:59,060 --> 00:04:02,440 Either way, intervention research is really about using science 59 00:04:02,440 --> 00:04:03,950 to do a thing to change the world. 60 00:04:03,950 --> 00:04:06,809 So what you're trying to do is affect some kind of a change. 61 00:04:09,620 --> 00:04:10,415 So we're good. 62 00:04:10,415 --> 00:04:15,281 Frequently cover some classical approaches to intervention research, 63 00:04:15,281 --> 00:04:19,673 and this is what I learned before I got really excited about realist 64 00:04:19,673 --> 00:04:23,608 approaches to give something to kind of contrast against. 65 00:04:23,608 --> 00:04:27,780 It's a little clearer that way at least, yeah at this stage. 66 00:04:27,780 --> 00:04:32,133 So we develop these theories of change and logic models when we're trying to think 67 00:04:32,133 --> 00:04:34,856 about how are we gonna actually affect something? 68 00:04:34,856 --> 00:04:36,165 How do we understand it? 69 00:04:36,165 --> 00:04:39,739 We have this idea of inputs and then things we're gonna do or 70 00:04:39,739 --> 00:04:45,550 things we're gonna activate in order to create these outputs or these outcomes. 71 00:04:45,550 --> 00:04:48,120 This desired effects are very linear. 72 00:04:50,050 --> 00:04:53,440 Here's a couple filled out for the EASA Connections Project. 73 00:04:55,630 --> 00:04:59,410 Our inputs are these resources and we're gonna make them available and 74 00:04:59,410 --> 00:05:03,190 then we've got these determinants, we're gonna activate people's competence 75 00:05:03,190 --> 00:05:08,059 relatedness and autonomy in order to have the self determination outcome. 76 00:05:09,100 --> 00:05:11,890 This was the logic model. 77 00:05:11,890 --> 00:05:15,450 So we get the inputs and then the activities are what are you doing? 78 00:05:15,450 --> 00:05:16,110 What are you gonna do? 79 00:05:16,110 --> 00:05:19,640 What are the intervention activities? 80 00:05:19,640 --> 00:05:22,650 What falls out of that? 81 00:05:22,650 --> 00:05:27,160 And then you've got outcomes or short term or intermediate 82 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:31,260 outcomes at may impact your impact, is the big thing that you want to impact. 83 00:05:33,390 --> 00:05:37,090 Again, this very linear notion of what 84 00:05:37,090 --> 00:05:40,710 you're gonna do in a certain evaluation steps along the way. 85 00:05:40,710 --> 00:05:46,000 So after you've developed it and put it together, you do pilot tests. 86 00:05:46,000 --> 00:05:50,300 So you create a program based on your theory of change in your logic model. 87 00:05:50,300 --> 00:05:52,361 You see if you can do it, is it feasible? 88 00:05:52,361 --> 00:05:55,645 You'll see if people like it, as if they don't. 89 00:05:55,645 --> 00:05:56,861 That's it. 90 00:05:56,861 --> 00:05:57,945 Is it acceptable? 91 00:05:57,945 --> 00:06:02,214 You test your data collection protocols, fidelity, 92 00:06:02,214 --> 00:06:07,985 can people consistently deliver this intervention based on a protocol? 93 00:06:07,985 --> 00:06:13,152 Test your outcome measures because you're gonna ultimately have to measure, 94 00:06:13,152 --> 00:06:17,718 did the things that we thought we're gonna move at this point in time? 95 00:06:17,718 --> 00:06:23,995 Did we actually have a increased self-esteem, 96 00:06:23,995 --> 00:06:29,515 so you need some measures for that custom. 97 00:06:29,515 --> 00:06:33,376 Often mixed methods of quantitative qualitative mix, 98 00:06:33,376 --> 00:06:38,714 pre/post study design sometimes get broad sketches, it's not about we can 99 00:06:38,714 --> 00:06:44,410 change it at this stage, but do we think this is this looking like it might work? 100 00:06:44,410 --> 00:06:49,480 And then if it looks like it might work, you go into the efficacy testing stage and 101 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:53,260 randomized control trials are considered the gold standard for that. 102 00:06:53,260 --> 00:06:57,960 So, efficacy testing you're asking did the program really changed the specified 103 00:06:57,960 --> 00:07:00,155 outcomes under controlled conditions? 104 00:07:00,155 --> 00:07:04,463 So you're gonna use up a couple of measures, something to compare. 105 00:07:04,463 --> 00:07:09,449 You're going to use a control through, so you're gonna compare it to a population 106 00:07:09,449 --> 00:07:13,453 that's otherwise similar but did not receive the intervention. 107 00:07:13,453 --> 00:07:18,647 So you can use out what was the intervention versus what wasn't, 108 00:07:18,647 --> 00:07:23,474 and what's really the intervention that impacted people. 109 00:07:23,474 --> 00:07:27,890 Yeah, RTC's are considered the gold standard of strong evidence. 110 00:07:27,890 --> 00:07:30,206 There's a statistical aggregation of results. 111 00:07:30,206 --> 00:07:35,702 So, in the end, we're gonna have some thing that says, 112 00:07:35,702 --> 00:07:41,099 X percentage of people had the dial blue on the outcome. 113 00:07:41,099 --> 00:07:45,772 And it makes sense for research, does the medication reduce blood sugar level? 114 00:07:45,772 --> 00:07:48,820 The very black and white question. 115 00:07:50,690 --> 00:07:54,620 But there are a lot of issues with these approaches. 116 00:07:54,620 --> 00:07:56,470 Where do you get into real world. 117 00:07:56,470 --> 00:08:00,911 Complex stuff, so I'm giving this talk to you [LAUGH]. 118 00:08:00,911 --> 00:08:04,505 So, real world implementation is super messy. 119 00:08:04,505 --> 00:08:08,959 You can't control conditions, the conditions are a constantly moving target. 120 00:08:08,959 --> 00:08:13,770 Because the environment is always changing, there's turnover in staff. 121 00:08:13,770 --> 00:08:17,574 You don't know what's gonna happen, contamination that's difficult to avoid. 122 00:08:17,574 --> 00:08:21,674 So if you've got a social program, like the early psychosis program, 123 00:08:21,674 --> 00:08:23,941 you have people who talk to each other. 124 00:08:23,941 --> 00:08:27,185 They're gonna run into each other in the hall, hey, I did this cool thing. 125 00:08:27,185 --> 00:08:28,403 Have you done the cool thing? 126 00:08:28,403 --> 00:08:33,469 And so, it's really hard to kinda contain your intervention and 127 00:08:33,469 --> 00:08:36,710 keep it separate from the control group. 128 00:08:36,710 --> 00:08:39,590 Many influences on, there's stuff happening 129 00:08:39,590 --> 00:08:43,899 in your life that might be moving the dial that's separate from the intervention. 130 00:08:44,900 --> 00:08:46,818 There's feedback everywhere. 131 00:08:46,818 --> 00:08:50,662 Aggregation is kind of a problem because every intervention works for someone and 132 00:08:50,662 --> 00:08:52,009 doesn't work for someone. 133 00:08:52,009 --> 00:08:54,613 So if we're gonna take a binary percentage, 134 00:08:54,613 --> 00:08:57,772 are you actually throwing away something important? 135 00:08:57,772 --> 00:09:00,308 Because the people that worked for 136 00:09:00,308 --> 00:09:04,250 you really didn't make a difference in their lives. 137 00:09:04,250 --> 00:09:07,210 And there are also some issues with, in my opinion, 138 00:09:07,210 --> 00:09:10,254 measuring some complex and subjective constructs. 139 00:09:10,254 --> 00:09:15,123 Like, can a measure really tell you whether you've reduced internalized 140 00:09:15,123 --> 00:09:15,748 stigma? 141 00:09:15,748 --> 00:09:20,175 Is there a measure that's good enough to capture that construct? 142 00:09:20,175 --> 00:09:24,462 And there are multiple approaches to solving these problems. 143 00:09:24,462 --> 00:09:29,280 But for once I'm gonna speculate [INAUDIBLE]. 144 00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:32,510 The Realist Evaluation does not ask, what works? 145 00:09:32,510 --> 00:09:36,840 But it asks, what works for whom, in what circumstances and why? 146 00:09:37,960 --> 00:09:44,660 So it's a different, it's a very different core research question from the start. 147 00:09:44,660 --> 00:09:47,010 It provides a non-dichotomous paradigm for evaluation. 148 00:09:47,010 --> 00:09:51,975 So in those traditional approaches we're looking for a positive result, 149 00:09:51,975 --> 00:09:55,376 it worked, or a negative result, it did not work. 150 00:09:55,376 --> 00:09:59,203 But that makes no sense in terms of evaluation. 151 00:09:59,203 --> 00:10:04,530 It tests an intervention to kind of understand its structure, contexts. 152 00:10:04,530 --> 00:10:07,522 What mechanisms inside of it lead to various outcomes? 153 00:10:07,522 --> 00:10:10,494 And it's trying to better target population, or 154 00:10:10,494 --> 00:10:12,554 create more effective programs. 155 00:10:12,554 --> 00:10:15,075 It's evaluating the results, 156 00:10:15,075 --> 00:10:20,498 like what do we know about what's going on here based on the results? 157 00:10:20,498 --> 00:10:25,920 So some underlying assumptions and framework. 158 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:32,275 So, an intervention is an idea that somebody has for creating change. 159 00:10:32,275 --> 00:10:35,040 It's a theory that we can use scientific method to test. 160 00:10:35,040 --> 00:10:39,370 So the idea is that an intervention isn't some program sitting here. 161 00:10:39,370 --> 00:10:43,230 It's something that we're gonna test with scientific method. 162 00:10:43,230 --> 00:10:50,200 An intervention, it assumes exists inside of a larger social context, cuz it does. 163 00:10:50,200 --> 00:10:53,250 It thinks about the results of an intervention as being created 164 00:10:53,250 --> 00:10:57,900 by an active relationship between participants in the intervention resource. 165 00:10:57,900 --> 00:11:00,030 It's not something you do to a person. 166 00:11:00,030 --> 00:11:05,120 It's something that is done actively with someone. 167 00:11:05,120 --> 00:11:07,880 And it thinks of interventions as open systems. 168 00:11:07,880 --> 00:11:11,240 They're actively entangled in their environment, and 169 00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:12,790 everything is always changing. 170 00:11:12,790 --> 00:11:15,530 It doesn't pretend that you can create a laboratory 171 00:11:15,530 --> 00:11:17,628 condition under which that isn't true. 172 00:11:17,628 --> 00:11:20,950 It says okay, this is the real world, this is what it's like. 173 00:11:20,950 --> 00:11:26,273 So we're gonna start by accepting this as if it's [INAUDIBLE]. 174 00:11:26,273 --> 00:11:30,824 So three core components of realist evaluation are mechanisms, 175 00:11:30,824 --> 00:11:32,569 contexts and outcomes. 176 00:11:35,019 --> 00:11:36,677 So mechanisms are, 177 00:11:36,677 --> 00:11:42,247 what about the program do we think is going to bring about an effect? 178 00:11:42,247 --> 00:11:47,110 There are processes by which people interact with the intervention. 179 00:11:47,110 --> 00:11:51,840 They're different from those determinants that we saw in the change model. 180 00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:55,700 It's not like some construct that's going to be activated. 181 00:11:55,700 --> 00:12:00,292 It's an active thing that is the thing that is happening. 182 00:12:00,292 --> 00:12:04,754 Interventions don't work the customary searches and protocols. 183 00:12:07,291 --> 00:12:10,116 The intervention itself isn't that what works. 184 00:12:10,116 --> 00:12:12,656 What works is the resources and the protocols, 185 00:12:12,656 --> 00:12:15,334 in conjunction with a person's participation. 186 00:12:15,334 --> 00:12:19,770 Again, it's this sort of very active process is what will work or not. 187 00:12:19,770 --> 00:12:24,444 And there are many of them, so I took examples. 188 00:12:24,444 --> 00:12:28,641 I've ripped them straight from a really cool document. 189 00:12:28,641 --> 00:12:34,604 And my last slide I've got links on, and I can send you all slides if you email me, 190 00:12:34,604 --> 00:12:39,168 where you can get this document that I pulled these examples, 191 00:12:39,168 --> 00:12:40,776 in whole cloth from. 192 00:12:40,776 --> 00:12:45,041 It's a really great foundational document that I think, 193 00:12:45,041 --> 00:12:47,224 on a person [INAUDIBLE] [LAUGH]. 194 00:12:47,224 --> 00:12:51,070 So, this is just an example of mechanisms. 195 00:12:51,070 --> 00:12:55,658 So the intervention was to improve classroom attendance by 196 00:12:55,658 --> 00:12:57,592 doing a breakfast club. 197 00:12:57,592 --> 00:13:01,660 So, one mechanism is providing extra nutrition. 198 00:13:01,660 --> 00:13:05,010 Another is to prevent misbehaving before class, 199 00:13:05,010 --> 00:13:07,500 so people aren't revved up when they walk in. 200 00:13:07,500 --> 00:13:11,490 Another mechanism is that it burns off activity and energy. 201 00:13:11,490 --> 00:13:14,101 It makes school seam less stiff and formal. 202 00:13:14,101 --> 00:13:16,369 It gives teachers more time to prepare, and 203 00:13:16,369 --> 00:13:18,956 it enables parents to connect with school staff. 204 00:13:18,956 --> 00:13:25,270 So those are some possible mechanisms of that breakfast club intervention. 205 00:13:25,270 --> 00:13:28,353 So contexts, they aren't a place, 206 00:13:28,353 --> 00:13:33,531 they're in what conditions is the intervention operating? 207 00:13:33,531 --> 00:13:36,723 And they are pretty much just all of the elements or 208 00:13:36,723 --> 00:13:40,228 circumstances that are impacting the intervention. 209 00:13:40,228 --> 00:13:46,525 They could facilitate, but they could also be barriers, or they could be both. 210 00:13:46,525 --> 00:13:48,440 And again, there will be many of them. 211 00:13:48,440 --> 00:13:53,076 So this is much less directly ripped because I actually had some 212 00:13:53,076 --> 00:13:56,321 social justice issues with the [INAUDIBLE]. 213 00:13:56,321 --> 00:14:01,936 [LAUGH] So this is a little bit modified, but it's still mostly from the paper. 214 00:14:01,936 --> 00:14:06,563 So it is an intervention to improve post-prison outcomes through a prisoner 215 00:14:06,563 --> 00:14:07,851 education program. 216 00:14:07,851 --> 00:14:12,816 So some contexts, the participants being tired of being in prison, 217 00:14:12,816 --> 00:14:15,307 them having future aspirations. 218 00:14:15,307 --> 00:14:20,804 The culture within the prison and of the prisoners, the culture of the guards. 219 00:14:20,804 --> 00:14:25,239 Having a stable home outside of prison or something to return to. 220 00:14:25,239 --> 00:14:27,707 The culture of the community outside, 221 00:14:27,707 --> 00:14:31,835 the general social attitudes toward ex-prisoners in society. 222 00:14:34,319 --> 00:14:38,197 So outcomes, contexts and mechanisms are multiple, so 223 00:14:38,197 --> 00:14:40,474 one expects multiple outcomes. 224 00:14:40,474 --> 00:14:45,563 This is, they are not connected to pass fail outcome measures. 225 00:14:45,563 --> 00:14:47,336 There's this idea of outcome patterns. 226 00:14:47,336 --> 00:14:51,930 So it's the intended and unintended consequences of the intervention. 227 00:14:51,930 --> 00:14:55,061 And it's based on the combinations of the contexts and mechanisms. 228 00:14:55,061 --> 00:15:02,693 So these mechanisms for people inside of these contexts produce these outcomes, 229 00:15:02,693 --> 00:15:07,126 is kinda the way it's [INAUDIBLE] fit together. 230 00:15:07,126 --> 00:15:12,120 And it provides a much more nuanced understanding of the intervention's 231 00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:14,063 results than a pass/fail. 232 00:15:15,350 --> 00:15:19,944 So here are some examples, these are more direct. 233 00:15:19,944 --> 00:15:29,600 So, The intervetion is a closed-circuit TV to reduce crime in parking lots. 234 00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:33,310 One outcome is people spending less time in parking lots. 235 00:15:33,310 --> 00:15:38,370 Another outcome is a reduction in crime rate in the parking lots. 236 00:15:38,370 --> 00:15:41,302 You can have secondary outcomes or more nuanced outcomes. 237 00:15:41,302 --> 00:15:46,170 Well maybe in that outcome pattern, 238 00:15:46,170 --> 00:15:49,830 crime is not dropping at busy times, but it is dropping. 239 00:15:49,830 --> 00:15:50,992 [INAUDIBLE] times, 240 00:15:50,992 --> 00:15:55,936 so that's sort of given you a much greater understanding of what's happening. 241 00:15:58,169 --> 00:16:00,900 So I kind of alluded to this and 242 00:16:00,900 --> 00:16:06,940 put it all together into a context-mechanism-outcome model. 243 00:16:06,940 --> 00:16:09,670 So we have a model for 244 00:16:09,670 --> 00:16:14,707 how interventions activate mechanisms within contexts to generate an outcome. 245 00:16:15,980 --> 00:16:18,720 So the model will answer what works for whom, and 246 00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:22,630 in what conditions, going back to that realist evaluation question. 247 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:29,840 And then so yeah, so a realist evaluation then becomes something that is 248 00:16:29,840 --> 00:16:36,640 going to scientifically test your model. 249 00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:40,880 And there's a quote, a fun quote, that I just quoted because I like it. 250 00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:43,460 The sign of a good intervention is that it is able to explain the complex 251 00:16:43,460 --> 00:16:45,230 signature of the outcome. 252 00:16:47,480 --> 00:16:52,430 I really like that as a way of thinking about intervention as opposed to 253 00:16:52,430 --> 00:16:53,800 it's a thing that's going to work or not work. 254 00:16:55,040 --> 00:16:59,372 At least when we're in the complex social intervention 255 00:16:59,372 --> 00:17:03,897 world not in a world of [INAUDIBLE] change your blood level. 256 00:17:06,895 --> 00:17:13,130 Realist research methods are not special, regular old science applies. 257 00:17:13,130 --> 00:17:18,496 Although, in my opinion, mixed methods may be particularly 258 00:17:18,496 --> 00:17:23,666 well suited to realist evaluation's research question. 259 00:17:23,666 --> 00:17:27,845 Gonna break away for a moment, just give general advice on research methods, 260 00:17:27,845 --> 00:17:31,709 is that the research methods you choose, whether it's quantitative, 261 00:17:31,709 --> 00:17:35,380 like a survey or qualitative like you're going to do interviews, or 262 00:17:35,380 --> 00:17:38,419 mixed methods, where you're going to do some of both and 263 00:17:38,419 --> 00:17:42,130 in the kind of synergy between them, you're going to learn a thing. 264 00:17:42,130 --> 00:17:45,590 Your research methods always need to match your research question, 265 00:17:45,590 --> 00:17:50,510 because methods are really tied to what you want to know. 266 00:17:50,510 --> 00:17:54,180 You can't answer an I need to understand this with a quantitative measure. 267 00:17:54,180 --> 00:17:58,870 And you can't answer something where you need an aggregate result for 268 00:17:58,870 --> 00:18:03,380 a mathematical model with qualitative interviews, 269 00:18:03,380 --> 00:18:05,830 you need sometimes quantitative things. 270 00:18:05,830 --> 00:18:10,531 So I am a mixed methods researcher, is what I do data on most, 271 00:18:10,531 --> 00:18:15,253 which means that I'm not very good at either quadrant call. 272 00:18:15,253 --> 00:18:20,938 [LAUGH] But I love how the interaction between, 273 00:18:20,938 --> 00:18:26,040 and because the question here is a complex 274 00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:31,276 one that, It's 275 00:18:31,276 --> 00:18:35,010 kind of triangulating information from a lot of different data sources, right? 276 00:18:35,010 --> 00:18:37,709 Your crime rate is a quantitative thing, but 277 00:18:37,709 --> 00:18:42,537 then you might wanna talk to some people who regularly park in the lot to find out, 278 00:18:42,537 --> 00:18:45,178 get your sense of what's going on changed. 279 00:18:45,178 --> 00:18:46,374 Did you notice the camera? 280 00:18:46,374 --> 00:18:49,212 There might be qualitative questions like that. 281 00:18:49,212 --> 00:18:54,144 The study design can also include rival theories to the intervention 282 00:18:54,144 --> 00:18:57,780 in order to understand what's happening. 283 00:18:57,780 --> 00:19:03,580 One of the things that gets lost by not putting in a controlled situation, 284 00:19:03,580 --> 00:19:08,660 and accepting that this is an open system, is that we really don't know if 285 00:19:08,660 --> 00:19:11,700 it's the intervention that's affecting something versus something else. 286 00:19:11,700 --> 00:19:16,329 So a suggestion that I read about is to just include in your CMO 287 00:19:16,329 --> 00:19:21,090 some alternate theories, 288 00:19:21,090 --> 00:19:25,480 but within limits, because it's an open system. 289 00:19:25,480 --> 00:19:29,260 So we need to draw boundaries around the system of interest somewhere to those 290 00:19:29,260 --> 00:19:37,670 things that you think are most plausibly going to be happening. 291 00:19:37,670 --> 00:19:41,874 This idea of it being hypothesis testing, 292 00:19:41,874 --> 00:19:48,082 this is the scientific method cycle with realist evaluation. 293 00:19:48,082 --> 00:19:52,052 You have your theory, your CMO, you collect data, you analyze it, 294 00:19:52,052 --> 00:19:57,380 does this match what we thought was happening inside of this intervention? 295 00:19:57,380 --> 00:20:00,074 Adjust the hypothesis, and start again. 296 00:20:00,074 --> 00:20:05,299 I found this more concrete diagram of that, 297 00:20:05,299 --> 00:20:11,240 that has some of the CMO language put inside of it. 298 00:20:13,910 --> 00:20:17,800 And it breaks down into phases, but it's kind of the same diagram. 299 00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:24,910 So you come up with your original program idea based on your first half of your CMO. 300 00:20:24,910 --> 00:20:29,629 Develop what you're going to test, 301 00:20:29,629 --> 00:20:34,043 which then you collect data to test 302 00:20:34,043 --> 00:20:38,922 this to test your idea about your CMO. 303 00:20:38,922 --> 00:20:43,831 Again, it's so new that the method should be appropriate to what 304 00:20:43,831 --> 00:20:47,960 questions you're asking, what's inside your CMO. 305 00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:52,812 Analyse your data, then based on what you learned, you refine your CMO, 306 00:20:52,812 --> 00:20:56,116 and then you can use that to refine that feedback. 307 00:20:56,116 --> 00:21:00,622 And, [INAUDIBLE] a little loss, but there's an arrow that then feeds back in, 308 00:21:00,622 --> 00:21:03,780 and you could potentially adjust your intervention. 309 00:21:03,780 --> 00:21:07,210 You could target it more cleanly to who it's working for, 310 00:21:07,210 --> 00:21:09,660 you could do a lot of things at that point. 311 00:21:10,660 --> 00:21:13,497 It's not linear like your logic model, 312 00:21:13,497 --> 00:21:17,537 it's delightfully difficult and keep that [INAUDIBLE]. 313 00:21:17,537 --> 00:21:22,170 [LAUGH] So, I really wanted to be able to give you a really great example from my 314 00:21:22,170 --> 00:21:28,020 research, to start wrapping it up. 315 00:21:28,020 --> 00:21:32,638 But I sorta ran out of time so, but you get my messy research notes. 316 00:21:32,638 --> 00:21:38,390 So this is the EASA Connections project. 317 00:21:38,390 --> 00:21:42,960 I really think that this project is right now in its final data analysis. 318 00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:45,470 It was not designed as a realist evaluation, 319 00:21:45,470 --> 00:21:48,260 it was not designed for a realist. 320 00:21:48,260 --> 00:21:53,529 I actually have a, did I put it here? 321 00:21:53,529 --> 00:21:56,040 I guess I didn't. 322 00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:59,460 I actually have a, no, I did put it in here. 323 00:21:59,460 --> 00:22:01,843 [INAUDIBLE] the number we had to add. 324 00:22:03,583 --> 00:22:04,810 This was the, whoa! 325 00:22:04,810 --> 00:22:08,808 I probably shouldn't have done this, okay. 326 00:22:08,808 --> 00:22:12,618 Yeah, so we have a traditional change model and 327 00:22:12,618 --> 00:22:16,724 a traditional logic model for this intervention. 328 00:22:16,724 --> 00:22:20,040 So this was not realist from the start. 329 00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:26,182 However, as I've gotten into the data that we collected on it, 330 00:22:26,182 --> 00:22:30,161 we have a lot of there's a pretty small n, 331 00:22:30,161 --> 00:22:36,450 there were about 32 people who went through the intervention. 332 00:22:36,450 --> 00:22:39,692 And you can't do anything statistically with that, we didn't design it to. 333 00:22:39,692 --> 00:22:41,170 It was a pilot study. 334 00:22:41,170 --> 00:22:43,320 It was not an advocacy study. 335 00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,650 We did test measures. 336 00:22:45,650 --> 00:22:50,207 There wasn't statistically significant change anywhere except for 337 00:22:50,207 --> 00:22:54,309 the stigma measure, the internalized stigma measure moved. 338 00:22:54,309 --> 00:22:58,478 We also did interviews with 10 participants, and 339 00:22:58,478 --> 00:23:03,688 we purposefully sampled them to be a mix of people who had really, 340 00:23:03,688 --> 00:23:10,070 really loved the intervention and gotten a lot out of it and people who didn't. 341 00:23:10,070 --> 00:23:13,810 And then the intervention also had contact with a peer. 342 00:23:13,810 --> 00:23:18,742 So it was primarily this web-based resource that people go look at 343 00:23:18,742 --> 00:23:20,159 on their own time. 344 00:23:20,159 --> 00:23:24,796 But there was also somebody who had been through the program, 345 00:23:24,796 --> 00:23:29,344 who graduated from the program, who introduced them to it, 346 00:23:29,344 --> 00:23:35,254 navigated around, told them parts that were of interest personally to them. 347 00:23:35,254 --> 00:23:40,005 And then contacted them periodically throughout the next couple of months to 348 00:23:40,005 --> 00:23:44,440 see if they had looked at it, and to give them some encouragement. 349 00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:47,933 So there was actually a one on one contact. 350 00:23:47,933 --> 00:23:52,446 With here throughout this. 351 00:23:52,446 --> 00:23:54,837 So we had asked them about the peer and 352 00:23:54,837 --> 00:23:58,323 then the peer also collected a bunch of information. 353 00:23:58,323 --> 00:24:01,600 So the peer, we have fidelity data from the peer, 354 00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:05,950 like did they deliver the intervention as the protocol said. 355 00:24:05,950 --> 00:24:10,823 But they also made notes about their interaction with the participant and 356 00:24:10,823 --> 00:24:16,259 things that the participant may told them about how they were using the resource. 357 00:24:16,259 --> 00:24:20,860 So we have a big mush of quantitative and qualitative data. 358 00:24:20,860 --> 00:24:22,960 We also talk to clinicians so 359 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:27,640 we have a lot of different stakeholder perspectives involved in it. 360 00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:32,317 And I've started kinda combing through 361 00:24:32,317 --> 00:24:36,723 this data and got really interested. 362 00:24:36,723 --> 00:24:40,476 The realist evaluation stuff went for me, thought this is cool, 363 00:24:40,476 --> 00:24:44,041 I should look into it to this going on to Zoom during that time. 364 00:24:44,041 --> 00:24:50,995 And now I'm really looking at these connections data and wondering if I can. 365 00:24:50,995 --> 00:24:56,731 Apparently, you are allowed to use realist valuation 366 00:24:56,731 --> 00:25:01,360 in a post [INAUDIBLE], they help synthesis. 367 00:25:01,360 --> 00:25:04,109 I don't know, maybe the synthesis of something else. 368 00:25:04,109 --> 00:25:08,389 But I'm kinda thinking about, can I apply some of the realist ideas and 369 00:25:08,389 --> 00:25:11,611 the CMO models to understanding this intervention. 370 00:25:11,611 --> 00:25:16,293 Particularly because we really do have data from people in the and 371 00:25:16,293 --> 00:25:19,045 a lot of information about their context. 372 00:25:19,045 --> 00:25:22,329 We know what agency that they were working out of, 373 00:25:22,329 --> 00:25:24,760 we know who their counsellors were. 374 00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:30,593 We know their demographics, we know how long you're in program. 375 00:25:30,593 --> 00:25:37,077 And then we have a lot of subjective information from the peer navigator nodes, 376 00:25:37,077 --> 00:25:41,934 peer navigator discussions and these kind of interviews. 377 00:25:41,934 --> 00:25:47,090 So it had started with this, actually, as I was going through the data. 378 00:25:47,090 --> 00:25:51,286 I started making these piles of who this was useful for and 379 00:25:51,286 --> 00:25:53,305 who it wasn't useful for. 380 00:25:53,305 --> 00:25:56,245 And then looked at it and was like, wait a minute, 381 00:25:56,245 --> 00:25:59,536 what I'm writing down here are contexts [LAUGH] I think. 382 00:25:59,536 --> 00:26:02,686 I think I'm writing down context. 383 00:26:02,686 --> 00:26:05,093 And then I started thinking back, I'm like, 384 00:26:05,093 --> 00:26:07,264 well, what are the mechanisms for this? 385 00:26:07,264 --> 00:26:08,716 What are the outcomes? 386 00:26:08,716 --> 00:26:13,485 We had a self-determination outcome from the logic model, but 387 00:26:13,485 --> 00:26:18,961 I honestly think the most interesting part of this is the anti-stigma and 388 00:26:18,961 --> 00:26:21,840 the peer connectedness pieces. 389 00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:26,510 So, I don't know, you'd probably get people. 390 00:26:26,510 --> 00:26:30,362 I remember from my seminar days people would come into with these beautifully 391 00:26:30,362 --> 00:26:32,021 completed projects and be like, 392 00:26:32,021 --> 00:26:34,763 I am now going to tell you the findings from my science. 393 00:26:34,763 --> 00:26:38,322 So this is a look into before we get to that stage. 394 00:26:38,322 --> 00:26:41,551 The kind of mass and wreckage of hike. 395 00:26:41,551 --> 00:26:42,461 >> Hikings. >> [LAUGH] 396 00:26:42,461 --> 00:26:44,748 >> What is this, what are you? 397 00:26:44,748 --> 00:26:50,820 Let's look at that, how can we use it to better target? 398 00:26:50,820 --> 00:26:54,260 So I'm already kind of thinking ahead to, 399 00:26:54,260 --> 00:26:59,129 well, if it is the case that the people who this works best for 400 00:26:59,129 --> 00:27:03,444 are people who are disengaged from the main program. 401 00:27:03,444 --> 00:27:09,649 And who are very nervous about communication, and who needs support but 402 00:27:09,649 --> 00:27:17,180 don't like going directly to people to get it and are feeling very uncomfortable. 403 00:27:17,180 --> 00:27:22,983 And if this is really, if we are starting to see certain contexts that 404 00:27:22,983 --> 00:27:28,096 the mechanisms of our intervention are really working for. 405 00:27:28,096 --> 00:27:32,914 Then maybe as the ISA program thinks ahead to how they're gonna implement this 406 00:27:32,914 --> 00:27:37,522 further and integrate it further into their own programming and systems. 407 00:27:37,522 --> 00:27:41,107 This might be something that they make a point to offer to 408 00:27:41,107 --> 00:27:44,322 those people who are not coming to your meetings. 409 00:27:44,322 --> 00:27:47,715 Or it has potential implications for 410 00:27:47,715 --> 00:27:53,412 changes to program delivery that I think is much more useful. 411 00:27:53,412 --> 00:27:58,964 Than looking at this and saying, well, yes, people liked it, 412 00:27:58,964 --> 00:28:03,542 and it was feasible, but it did not move our outcomes. 413 00:28:03,542 --> 00:28:10,033 Okay, so we're doing that efficacy trial without making modifications. 414 00:28:10,033 --> 00:28:12,330 >> Well, it goes to inclusion criteria too. 415 00:28:12,330 --> 00:28:14,892 >> Yeah. >> If it doesn't work for certain reasons, 416 00:28:14,892 --> 00:28:18,362 then don't try to solve the problem for that particular. 417 00:28:18,362 --> 00:28:20,799 >> Yeah, yeah, and don't try to push it at them. 418 00:28:20,799 --> 00:28:24,881 >> Yeah, yeah. >> Or give everyone the information that 419 00:28:24,881 --> 00:28:29,543 the people who really need to get together up 420 00:28:29,543 --> 00:28:34,331 here to connect up with this are the people who 421 00:28:34,331 --> 00:28:39,520 are introverts or whatever comes up out of this. 422 00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:44,069 So yeah, I mean, this is my question right now, is can I create and 423 00:28:44,069 --> 00:28:47,992 test this demo with the data right now, I think? 424 00:28:47,992 --> 00:28:54,089 And next Wednesday I'm doing this trip and I'm gonna ask this question [LAUGH]. 425 00:28:54,089 --> 00:28:57,561 My data, and when it comes to that [INAUDIBLE], 426 00:28:57,561 --> 00:29:00,151 think something that I can offer. 427 00:29:00,151 --> 00:29:03,950 >> Can I just interrupt you, just say, how many of you know what trip is? 428 00:29:05,470 --> 00:29:06,751 Well, of course I know some of you do. 429 00:29:06,751 --> 00:29:07,545 >> [LAUGH] >> But 430 00:29:07,545 --> 00:29:10,220 it's scholarly research in progress. 431 00:29:10,220 --> 00:29:14,820 It's a weekly opportunity to share research designs, preliminary or 432 00:29:14,820 --> 00:29:18,975 very well-developed to get feedback from peers, peer issue. 433 00:29:18,975 --> 00:29:24,476 And it's a wonderful resource tool that just isn't very well-publicized, 434 00:29:24,476 --> 00:29:27,160 I guess in this room in particular. 435 00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:30,011 >> The focus is on social determinants of health research. 436 00:29:30,011 --> 00:29:34,967 So you are gonna get, it's all human subjects research pretty much, 437 00:29:34,967 --> 00:29:36,735 so it's human subject. 438 00:29:36,735 --> 00:29:41,653 But it does run a huge gamut from clinical team way much 439 00:29:41,653 --> 00:29:46,694 with their stuff and understanding gentrification. 440 00:29:46,694 --> 00:29:50,332 I mean, it's all over, it's all over the map, but 441 00:29:50,332 --> 00:29:53,842 it is within >> So you mean if you wanna know more? 442 00:29:53,842 --> 00:29:55,816 >> Yeah. >> I just wanted that- 443 00:29:55,816 --> 00:29:57,441 >> Not forget to do that. 444 00:29:57,441 --> 00:29:59,480 >> You wanna see the mess that people make. 445 00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:04,355 The point behind it is, is that you can bring your research at 446 00:30:04,355 --> 00:30:08,958 any stage of development but it needs to not be finished. 447 00:30:08,958 --> 00:30:11,461 >> [LAUGH] >> So you get people who come in with 448 00:30:11,461 --> 00:30:15,438 like, I have some ideas but I don't know if any of them are good or 449 00:30:15,438 --> 00:30:18,251 any of these are good for a research project. 450 00:30:18,251 --> 00:30:21,899 And then you have people like the one that I'm doing next week, it's like, 451 00:30:21,899 --> 00:30:24,936 we've already done the project, we've collected the data. 452 00:30:24,936 --> 00:30:30,291 And now I'm trying to figure out how this data can 453 00:30:30,291 --> 00:30:37,487 have the most impact on the field as I put it together, it's fun. 454 00:30:37,487 --> 00:30:42,502 >> [INAUDIBLE] you seem to have a criteria 455 00:30:42,502 --> 00:30:47,363 in which in here and stand. 456 00:30:47,363 --> 00:30:49,937 So you can use that criteria to buck your sample and 457 00:30:49,937 --> 00:30:52,651 see if you have the sample worked on that [INAUDIBLE]. 458 00:30:52,651 --> 00:30:57,499 >> Yeah, I tend to do that because we have 459 00:30:57,499 --> 00:31:01,439 a bunch of evaluation data, so 460 00:31:01,439 --> 00:31:06,752 one of the questions is how useful was it? 461 00:31:06,752 --> 00:31:15,125 So we can certainly look at the population that said that it's useful and 462 00:31:15,125 --> 00:31:20,765 the population that said that it's not useful. 463 00:31:20,765 --> 00:31:26,135 >> I don't know if that your own criteria would also specify the output for 464 00:31:26,135 --> 00:31:27,489 this [INAUDIBLE]. 465 00:31:27,489 --> 00:31:33,840 >> I don't have [COUGH] I have in the qualitative. 466 00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:37,412 I mean, I don't know if they were outgoing people, 467 00:31:37,412 --> 00:31:41,158 I guess I'm gonna set that out, not well thought out. 468 00:31:41,158 --> 00:31:46,140 But in their interviews, there were people who said, 469 00:31:46,140 --> 00:31:49,814 I would rather talk to some Someone. 470 00:31:49,814 --> 00:31:52,669 I would rather have a conversation with someone, and 471 00:31:52,669 --> 00:31:55,342 those were the people who didn't find it useful. 472 00:31:55,342 --> 00:31:59,731 And the people who did find it useful were saying things like, yeah, 473 00:31:59,731 --> 00:32:05,101 these were questions, I was afraid that, I couldn't talk to my, I was embarrassed 474 00:32:05,101 --> 00:32:09,890 to bring this up to my counselor, or I was afraid to tell this to my parents. 475 00:32:09,890 --> 00:32:12,787 So I was able to just print it out and give it to them. 476 00:32:12,787 --> 00:32:18,580 And so I'm making a judgment about whether they were outgoing or not. 477 00:32:18,580 --> 00:32:21,465 It was more like how they like to interact. 478 00:32:21,465 --> 00:32:27,309 [INAUDIBLE] separate from the [INAUDIBLE] as well. 479 00:32:27,309 --> 00:32:30,132 Is that [INAUDIBLE]? 480 00:32:30,132 --> 00:32:32,889 >> Yeah. 481 00:32:32,889 --> 00:32:37,225 So if I'm understanding it, sorry, 482 00:32:37,225 --> 00:32:41,980 outgoing or not would be a context and so. 483 00:32:41,980 --> 00:32:46,589 >> [INAUDIBLE], at my limited understanding of realist evaluation. 484 00:32:46,589 --> 00:32:47,355 >> Yeah. >> Yes. 485 00:32:47,355 --> 00:32:50,408 [LAUGH] >> It seems like more, yeah, 486 00:32:50,408 --> 00:32:52,180 who it works for. 487 00:32:53,410 --> 00:32:55,400 Something that going forward. 488 00:32:55,400 --> 00:33:01,950 >> People who prefer to get information, By themselves. 489 00:33:01,950 --> 00:33:07,652 >> Yeah, but I mean, that would be more of a context than a mechanism. 490 00:33:07,652 --> 00:33:11,833 >> Yeah I believe so I mean correct me if I- 491 00:33:11,833 --> 00:33:13,014 >> [LAUGH] 492 00:33:13,014 --> 00:33:14,390 >> I don't know if you've been cringing. 493 00:33:14,390 --> 00:33:16,841 >> [LAUGH] >> You're doing fine. 494 00:33:16,841 --> 00:33:20,420 >> [LAUGH] >> But yeah, I mean in my limited 495 00:33:20,420 --> 00:33:25,893 understanding right now, the mechanisms are more like, 496 00:33:25,893 --> 00:33:32,385 what is the thing that's actually happening in this intervention. 497 00:33:32,385 --> 00:33:38,060 Right, so the mechanisms that I kind of brainstormed 498 00:33:38,060 --> 00:33:43,104 at midnight last night were that peer navigator 499 00:33:43,104 --> 00:33:47,658 contact, relatableness of the content. 500 00:33:47,658 --> 00:33:52,383 Because there was a lot of peer, there were videos that there's a need. 501 00:33:52,383 --> 00:33:58,250 That anytime resource delivery, like these are things that the intervention did. 502 00:33:58,250 --> 00:34:04,492 They were what the activities of the intervention 503 00:34:04,492 --> 00:34:09,406 that people were actually engaged in. 504 00:34:09,406 --> 00:34:12,832 User control, I think, is a mechanism. 505 00:34:14,314 --> 00:34:20,404 Could be, again, this is all in my limited first pass understanding. 506 00:34:20,404 --> 00:34:24,011 But my impression from what I've read so 507 00:34:24,011 --> 00:34:28,892 far is that the contexts are about the characteristics 508 00:34:28,892 --> 00:34:33,486 that are present within the- >> More than 509 00:34:33,486 --> 00:34:34,970 characteristics of the subject. 510 00:34:34,970 --> 00:34:36,520 >> It's the characteristics of the subjects but 511 00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:41,490 it's also the characteristics of the place 512 00:34:41,490 --> 00:34:44,506 at the time and the pressures that- >> Delivery mechanisms. 513 00:34:44,506 --> 00:34:47,008 [CROSSTALK] and things like that. 514 00:34:47,008 --> 00:34:54,500 And then the mechanisms are like what is the intersection actually doing? 515 00:34:54,500 --> 00:34:56,960 It's giving you early morning nutrition, 516 00:34:56,960 --> 00:35:01,989 it's giving you user controlled information about psychosis. 517 00:35:04,030 --> 00:35:06,811 >> Alerts versus having to ask for information, maybe, 518 00:35:06,811 --> 00:35:09,050 would be a different mechanism. 519 00:35:09,050 --> 00:35:14,774 >> Yeah, actually the peer motivational, 520 00:35:14,774 --> 00:35:21,492 reminders from peers, might be the mechanism. 521 00:35:21,492 --> 00:35:26,654 So strengths, strong explanatory capability, ability to understand and 522 00:35:26,654 --> 00:35:31,830 refine interventions to better target them or meet specific needs. 523 00:35:31,830 --> 00:35:38,274 It doesn't sacrifice so many potentially important skills that activation does. 524 00:35:38,274 --> 00:35:42,413 Avoids a one size fits all solutions because you can have something that works, 525 00:35:42,413 --> 00:35:45,027 you can have different classes through your CMO. 526 00:35:48,197 --> 00:35:51,358 It might present a more useful set of findings for 527 00:35:51,358 --> 00:35:55,996 real world social science interventions than that binary [INAUDIBLE]. 528 00:35:55,996 --> 00:36:00,941 In my opinion, it's also a potentially useful tool in systems thinking for 529 00:36:00,941 --> 00:36:06,275 understanding generative structures because the CMOs is a terrific structure, 530 00:36:06,275 --> 00:36:09,618 and it comes from a strong system's perspective. 531 00:36:09,618 --> 00:36:14,324 Limitations and considerations, you might not need it or 532 00:36:14,324 --> 00:36:18,655 want it, straight-forward drug types [INAUDIBLE]. 533 00:36:18,655 --> 00:36:23,497 It ain't broke, it is complex to conceptualize and 534 00:36:23,497 --> 00:36:29,455 implement, but we're in this room so that might make us happy. 535 00:36:29,455 --> 00:36:33,300 It does not give a definitive universal answer to does it work. 536 00:36:33,300 --> 00:36:36,350 So if you have a funder or somebody who wants the answer, 537 00:36:36,350 --> 00:36:38,250 it's not going to give it. 538 00:36:38,250 --> 00:36:43,330 It instead gives complex answers, but they do like that. 539 00:36:43,330 --> 00:36:45,010 And it's not well known to the US and 540 00:36:45,010 --> 00:36:47,560 we've had some conversations about why that might be. 541 00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:51,450 But there might be a little bit of extra work you'll 542 00:36:51,450 --> 00:36:55,880 have to do to convince someone that this is a valid thing, that yes, 543 00:36:55,880 --> 00:37:00,397 you are going to get scientific results from this. 544 00:37:00,397 --> 00:37:02,734 So that's it, and this is the [INAUDIBLE]. 545 00:37:02,734 --> 00:37:04,930 And I want to mention a couple things and 546 00:37:04,930 --> 00:37:07,790 then we'll just go to discussion for the rest. 547 00:37:07,790 --> 00:37:13,264 So one is I thank you so much and a rock star for 548 00:37:13,264 --> 00:37:18,640 starting, kicking off PSU realist evaluations study group. 549 00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:23,100 Which you can talk to us, our next meeting is actually next Tuesday. 550 00:37:24,370 --> 00:37:27,130 These are some links and 551 00:37:27,130 --> 00:37:32,237 resources that have largely come from Ana, 552 00:37:32,237 --> 00:37:36,939 and I can send you the slides [INAUDIBLE]. 553 00:37:36,939 --> 00:37:39,349 >> And I can post it if you're willing to post this presentation. 554 00:37:39,349 --> 00:37:39,922 >> Yes, please. 555 00:37:39,922 --> 00:37:41,767 >> I can just put it up on our website. >> Yes, please post it, please post it. 556 00:37:41,767 --> 00:37:42,430 >> Okay. 557 00:37:42,430 --> 00:37:45,408 >> And you had a question like a hundred years ago. 558 00:37:45,408 --> 00:37:47,260 >> We kinda got into to, but 559 00:37:47,260 --> 00:37:52,643 it seems like the main difference to me between the realist evaluation, 560 00:37:52,643 --> 00:37:57,430 what you presented as the classical approach, is the context. 561 00:37:57,430 --> 00:38:01,692 It seems like mechanisms to me and what mediums and determinants, 562 00:38:01,692 --> 00:38:04,517 there's at least some translation there. 563 00:38:04,517 --> 00:38:05,990 I mean. 564 00:38:05,990 --> 00:38:10,180 >> I don't feel like there is, so 565 00:38:10,180 --> 00:38:15,606 the methods, >> Maybe 566 00:38:15,606 --> 00:38:18,546 it was just the particular mediums in the slide that you showed. 567 00:38:18,546 --> 00:38:19,868 I could have got the wrong impression. 568 00:38:24,086 --> 00:38:27,777 So the mechanisms are actually, I think the mechanisms, 569 00:38:27,777 --> 00:38:32,550 in my eyes, my thinking, are actually a little closer to the activities. 570 00:38:32,550 --> 00:38:33,200 >> Yeah, okay. 571 00:38:33,200 --> 00:38:35,882 >> In a logic model, but not really. 572 00:38:35,882 --> 00:38:41,550 They're not, the activities are the thing 573 00:38:41,550 --> 00:38:46,680 you do to a person, but the mechanisms do away with that kind of thinking. 574 00:38:46,680 --> 00:38:51,798 You're not doing a thing to a person, there's something that, 575 00:38:51,798 --> 00:38:57,104 there's an active engagement between something you're doing and 576 00:38:57,104 --> 00:38:59,628 the person who is engaged in it. 577 00:38:59,628 --> 00:39:00,961 >> Yeah. 578 00:39:00,961 --> 00:39:04,483 >> So I don't know that it analogs, I mean, 579 00:39:04,483 --> 00:39:09,639 in some there are I mean, you're still- >> Connected. 580 00:39:09,639 --> 00:39:15,919 >> It's,yeah, and the determinants in these types of models, they're usually 581 00:39:15,919 --> 00:39:22,210 some kind of construct that you're gonna use a complicated measure to get at. 582 00:39:22,210 --> 00:39:29,317 So we actually had quantitative scales that we used to get those things, 583 00:39:29,317 --> 00:39:34,792 and the idea is, well, we believe that if you stimulate 584 00:39:34,792 --> 00:39:40,153 someone's competence, relatedness and autonomy, 585 00:39:40,153 --> 00:39:44,700 that based on DC's Self determination theory that 586 00:39:46,740 --> 00:39:50,220 the outcome of that is, that you're gonna have increased self determination. 587 00:39:50,220 --> 00:39:53,376 So, we're gonna create an intervention that is going to 588 00:39:53,376 --> 00:39:56,216 activate people's confidence with knowledges. 589 00:39:56,216 --> 00:40:00,786 And they're relatedness to peers and the program, and their autonomy and 590 00:40:00,786 --> 00:40:04,080 self directing their own treatment plans. 591 00:40:04,080 --> 00:40:10,291 So, that's not the same thing as some- >> Yeah, 592 00:40:10,291 --> 00:40:13,813 I just mean that, it seems to be the max. 593 00:40:13,813 --> 00:40:16,791 You can imagine if you've got a deviant, 594 00:40:16,791 --> 00:40:21,705 or you say, what mechanisms do you think are effective? 595 00:40:21,705 --> 00:40:23,664 And so, it at least kind of appears, and 596 00:40:23,664 --> 00:40:28,090 it seems like the context though is something that doesn't appear here at all. 597 00:40:28,090 --> 00:40:33,024 And so they are asking a question, who gets what worked for isn't something 598 00:40:33,024 --> 00:40:37,582 that shows up in the classical [CROSSTALK] >> Yes, it's mostly absent, 599 00:40:37,582 --> 00:40:39,990 I mean, it's not totally absent. 600 00:40:39,990 --> 00:40:45,175 There's a more business action model thing that I didn't show for 601 00:40:45,175 --> 00:40:48,650 reasons of unnecessary complexity. 602 00:40:48,650 --> 00:40:54,114 But there are actually models in some of those cluster intervention, 603 00:40:54,114 --> 00:40:58,840 evaluation, Things that do look at content. 604 00:41:00,190 --> 00:41:02,490 Except that it's more of an abbreviate context. 605 00:41:02,490 --> 00:41:10,560 It's like what the context would be the EASA early psychosis program. 606 00:41:11,620 --> 00:41:17,559 It wouldn't be, A liking 607 00:41:17,559 --> 00:41:21,532 of on demand information delivery. 608 00:41:21,532 --> 00:41:29,230 So, I think it's there, but it's there on a kind of a higher level. 609 00:41:29,230 --> 00:41:33,560 It's not considered in the same way, they're considered as like 610 00:41:33,560 --> 00:41:38,950 a container that you're identifying or something that's impacting it. 611 00:41:38,950 --> 00:41:44,590 But it's not, The mapping just really breaks down. 612 00:41:44,590 --> 00:41:47,640 This is really totally, totally different, and 613 00:41:47,640 --> 00:41:49,480 maybe I made a mistake to show the classical. 614 00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:53,075 But one of the reasons why I had done that was because, I wanted to show that this is 615 00:41:53,075 --> 00:41:58,045 just a different way of thinking about the entire day. 616 00:41:58,045 --> 00:41:58,939 >> Before creating a catalog- >> [LAUGH] 617 00:41:58,939 --> 00:42:01,239 >> A couple of voices that I mind, 618 00:42:01,239 --> 00:42:03,975 give the people either a chance. 619 00:42:03,975 --> 00:42:07,982 >> I also wanna give them a chance to interact- 620 00:42:07,982 --> 00:42:08,780 >> No, no, don't- 621 00:42:08,780 --> 00:42:10,137 >> Let me give that a minute, yeah, 622 00:42:10,137 --> 00:42:12,656 I just like to try to represent them, cuz it's much harder for 623 00:42:12,656 --> 00:42:14,020 them to get a voice into the room. 624 00:42:14,020 --> 00:42:19,788 Although it does work, it's just harder, so what I had to do is. 625 00:42:19,788 --> 00:42:23,953 Okay, so Catherine says you've already answered her question [INAUDIBLE] follow 626 00:42:23,953 --> 00:42:24,630 a comments. 627 00:42:24,630 --> 00:42:28,054 But there's a comment from Nick saying, the systems evaluation topic 628 00:42:28,054 --> 00:42:31,308 of interest group of the American Evaluation Association released 629 00:42:31,308 --> 00:42:32,460 a high level document. 630 00:42:32,460 --> 00:42:38,478 And the chat provided a link to that which might be complimentary, so. 631 00:42:38,478 --> 00:42:39,979 >> Cool. 632 00:42:39,979 --> 00:42:43,041 >> I'll make sure that capture this chat window, and 633 00:42:43,041 --> 00:42:45,186 that way we could maybe figure out. 634 00:42:45,186 --> 00:42:47,213 I don't know how to share everything, but 635 00:42:47,213 --> 00:42:49,368 we'll do the best we can to share what we can. 636 00:42:49,368 --> 00:42:54,264 >> You can probably copy and paste the link, and send [INAUDIBLE] 637 00:42:54,264 --> 00:42:56,804 >> Yeah, so, please, go ahead. 638 00:42:56,804 --> 00:43:00,083 [LAUGH] >> I think to your point, 639 00:43:00,083 --> 00:43:06,468 I'm trying to think what the most [INAUDIBLE] I think that They, 640 00:43:07,631 --> 00:43:16,322 Mechanism that one of the primary differences between the sort of trials and 641 00:43:16,322 --> 00:43:22,310 we're gonna tried our positive approach, right? 642 00:43:23,790 --> 00:43:29,608 And that's another way, then we talk about this, is realists are realists, right? 643 00:43:29,608 --> 00:43:30,213 On specified to this [INAUDIBLE] 644 00:43:30,213 --> 00:43:30,933 >> [CROSSTALK] >> But 645 00:43:30,933 --> 00:43:31,568 there is realist philosophy [INAUDIBLE]. 646 00:43:31,568 --> 00:43:36,220 >> So one way of thinking about the difference is, 647 00:43:36,220 --> 00:43:40,524 positivist trials approaches RCTs, say, 648 00:43:40,524 --> 00:43:44,142 did you get the intervention or not? 649 00:43:44,142 --> 00:43:48,640 And then could it work or not, right? 650 00:43:48,640 --> 00:43:53,515 Real Estate, let's stop talking about interventions, 651 00:43:53,515 --> 00:43:57,600 let's stop talking about what the program did. 652 00:43:57,600 --> 00:44:01,661 Let's stop talking about what happened to the person instead, 653 00:44:01,661 --> 00:44:05,350 let's talk about the program theory, right? 654 00:44:05,350 --> 00:44:06,687 What is it that we think is going on? 655 00:44:06,687 --> 00:44:12,590 And that then creates the possibility, the likelihood, right? 656 00:44:12,590 --> 00:44:16,190 Of that outcome occurring. 657 00:44:16,190 --> 00:44:21,290 So context in that, so for one, it's a very different sort of level of analysis. 658 00:44:21,290 --> 00:44:25,993 They talk about realism as having ontological, right? 659 00:44:25,993 --> 00:44:29,998 So people like me who do program evaluation, we just measure whether or 660 00:44:29,998 --> 00:44:32,414 not somebody has a program or not, right? 661 00:44:32,414 --> 00:44:37,229 So that's the top of the iceberg in [INAUDIBLE] and 662 00:44:37,229 --> 00:44:41,701 real estate, no, we need to go much deeper. 663 00:44:41,701 --> 00:44:46,981 And start testing what it is I think is really going on when we make this, 664 00:44:46,981 --> 00:44:51,031 whatever the program is available to people, right? 665 00:44:51,031 --> 00:44:54,634 So they said, and you could go all the way down to measuring cortisol levels, right? 666 00:44:54,634 --> 00:44:59,623 Or you could have other measures of motivation, and you've got to pick the one 667 00:44:59,623 --> 00:45:04,320 that has much more purchase given whatever it is your context is, right? 668 00:45:04,320 --> 00:45:08,502 But so, for realist, the mechanism is really, 669 00:45:08,502 --> 00:45:13,405 I like to talk about it in terms of, what is the resource? 670 00:45:13,405 --> 00:45:16,955 What is the thing that's being made available to someone or 671 00:45:16,955 --> 00:45:21,320 that's being taken away as a result of the intervention? 672 00:45:21,320 --> 00:45:24,930 So, I think for some of yours, if you're talking about the peer to peer 673 00:45:24,930 --> 00:45:29,170 interaction, I mean, that sort of works, but really, what do you mean? 674 00:45:29,170 --> 00:45:34,757 Is it that somebody's getting information about something 675 00:45:34,757 --> 00:45:39,584 from somebody that they can identify with, right? 676 00:45:39,584 --> 00:45:44,447 So you get pretty specific about what that resource is, 677 00:45:44,447 --> 00:45:52,120 what are the characteristics of that thing that are actually causal, right? 678 00:45:52,120 --> 00:45:56,360 And are likely to have the response, right? 679 00:45:56,360 --> 00:45:58,701 On the part of the program recipient. 680 00:45:58,701 --> 00:46:06,180 So, we've got resources, and you can either say, reasoning or responses. 681 00:46:06,180 --> 00:46:13,050 So, what's causing that change, and what do we mean? 682 00:46:13,050 --> 00:46:14,510 >> In a specific context. 683 00:46:14,510 --> 00:46:19,314 >> Well, I'm getting to context- >> [LAUGH] 684 00:46:19,314 --> 00:46:20,447 >> Now in context. 685 00:46:20,447 --> 00:46:25,914 I mean, there are people hate context, there is so 686 00:46:25,914 --> 00:46:32,409 much time spent on context on the realist list serve within. 687 00:46:32,409 --> 00:46:34,987 Context is not necessarily setting, 688 00:46:34,987 --> 00:46:38,620 it's not necessarily the conditions even, right? 689 00:46:38,620 --> 00:46:44,008 Context is something that can either trigger, 690 00:46:44,008 --> 00:46:52,496 either facilitate or inhibit the mechanism from firing, right? 691 00:46:52,496 --> 00:46:59,120 And so, often, the reason is not the setting, is because if you say, well, 692 00:46:59,120 --> 00:47:05,445 this was a classroom and not a prison, that explains nothing, right? 693 00:47:05,445 --> 00:47:10,600 You have to say what it is, and connect it in a logical way, right? 694 00:47:10,600 --> 00:47:12,220 >> To- >> To the mechanism. 695 00:47:12,220 --> 00:47:15,703 So, I think that's one of the key differences again, 696 00:47:15,703 --> 00:47:20,795 between most of the work that I do is, we don't bother with explanation at all. 697 00:47:20,795 --> 00:47:24,665 We have all these proxies, that oftentimes I think are really does lead me, right? 698 00:47:24,665 --> 00:47:29,293 We measure race and ethnicity, and gender, and income, and we do a [SOUND] piss for 699 00:47:29,293 --> 00:47:30,377 job on all of that. 700 00:47:30,377 --> 00:47:33,740 And then we analyze and then we say, but we've got these correlations. 701 00:47:34,800 --> 00:47:37,737 So then let's design programs. 702 00:47:37,737 --> 00:47:41,660 Just because there's a statistically significant correlation does, 703 00:47:41,660 --> 00:47:44,677 They don't say I don't care about the [CROSSTALK]. 704 00:47:44,677 --> 00:47:47,676 >> And just cuz there isn't a statistically significant correlation 705 00:47:47,676 --> 00:47:49,154 doesn't mean anything either. 706 00:47:49,154 --> 00:47:53,396 I mean, and I wasn't expecting statistically significant correlations 707 00:47:53,396 --> 00:47:57,233 from any of our measures, because people used the intervention for 708 00:47:57,233 --> 00:47:59,860 one month and it wasn't designed for that. 709 00:47:59,860 --> 00:48:02,270 At the same time, just because it didn't show up, 710 00:48:02,270 --> 00:48:07,070 you listen to people talking about their experience and the fears. 711 00:48:07,070 --> 00:48:09,660 You listen to these interviews and people are like, 712 00:48:09,660 --> 00:48:14,950 this really did have a huge impact and you can't capture 713 00:48:14,950 --> 00:48:20,660 that with the measure. 714 00:48:20,660 --> 00:48:24,860 >> Right, I mean, there is a lively debate in the realist community about 715 00:48:24,860 --> 00:48:28,014 whether there's such thing as a realist in. 716 00:48:28,014 --> 00:48:31,070 Right, again, because most RCTs are not realists. 717 00:48:31,070 --> 00:48:34,780 They're not looking, there's no ontological depth, right? 718 00:48:35,840 --> 00:48:40,605 They're not testing theories in any kind of meaningful way, right? 719 00:48:40,605 --> 00:48:42,247 They're, did you get it or not. 720 00:48:42,247 --> 00:48:47,422 And now we catch our p value, it's either thumbs up or thumbs down. 721 00:48:47,422 --> 00:48:53,794 Could you design an RCT that is fundamentally realist? 722 00:48:53,794 --> 00:48:56,830 Well, I'll give you the link to the website, you can read that [LAUGH]. 723 00:48:56,830 --> 00:48:59,797 Or there's a great video actually of a [CROSSTALK] conference. 724 00:48:59,797 --> 00:49:03,969 >> [CROSSTALK] with the video on. 725 00:49:03,969 --> 00:49:05,228 Is it one of the ones? 726 00:49:05,228 --> 00:49:08,579 >> I don't think it is, cuz it's Leads. 727 00:49:08,579 --> 00:49:12,617 >> Would it be on some level just for 728 00:49:12,617 --> 00:49:17,852 every context I can prepare doing an RCT or 729 00:49:17,852 --> 00:49:23,060 something like it to try and see >> [LAUGH] 730 00:49:23,060 --> 00:49:25,436 >> I don't think that's feasible [LAUGH]. 731 00:49:25,436 --> 00:49:26,005 I mean these are really hard to do. 732 00:49:26,005 --> 00:49:29,275 >> Realists also reject the hierarchy of evidence, right? 733 00:49:29,275 --> 00:49:33,806 Which is one of my big things is, this whole push to evidence based practice and 734 00:49:33,806 --> 00:49:37,526 sort of saying that it's all about statistical significance. 735 00:49:37,526 --> 00:49:44,630 I mean, I think we afford way, way more to that design than we should. 736 00:49:44,630 --> 00:49:52,432 What happens then, realists results then feel less mushier, right? 737 00:49:52,432 --> 00:49:56,366 But I would argue, you're only uncomfortable with that because you drank 738 00:49:56,366 --> 00:49:58,814 the Kool Aid about the RCTs in the first place. 739 00:49:58,814 --> 00:50:02,231 >> But could you bring random assignment into the notion of realist evaluation? 740 00:50:02,231 --> 00:50:04,577 >> Realist or agnostic, when it comes to methods? 741 00:50:04,577 --> 00:50:07,316 What is the question you're trying to answer? 742 00:50:07,316 --> 00:50:11,547 >> [LAUGH] [CROSSTALK] >> Is that the appropriate method for 743 00:50:11,547 --> 00:50:14,410 the question that you're asking? 744 00:50:14,410 --> 00:50:18,919 >> Yeah, and again, I want to say let's turn that on, 745 00:50:18,919 --> 00:50:25,686 don't just use that to attack our qualitative methods or different sorts of, 746 00:50:25,686 --> 00:50:31,450 let's really look at some of those RCTs and say, do they deserve? 747 00:50:31,450 --> 00:50:36,155 I mean in my field, if you had two published studies that met the RCT 748 00:50:36,155 --> 00:50:40,021 criteria, you make it onto the clearing house list and 749 00:50:40,021 --> 00:50:45,752 the federal government will pay for those programs with child welfare dollars. 750 00:50:45,752 --> 00:50:47,652 Okay, if you look at the clearinghouse, 751 00:50:47,652 --> 00:50:50,056 there's two studies that found positive effects. 752 00:50:50,056 --> 00:50:52,090 Let's not even get into effects studies. 753 00:50:52,090 --> 00:50:57,761 Let's not even get into whether or not a p value of 0.05 makes sense, right? 754 00:50:57,761 --> 00:51:02,295 But if there are two, even if there are 69 that found no effect, 755 00:51:02,295 --> 00:51:05,768 just as long as we have none that showed real harm. 756 00:51:05,768 --> 00:51:09,549 I mean, my point there is just that, we're giving RCTs, 757 00:51:09,549 --> 00:51:13,420 we're giving trials, a huge intellectual pass, right? 758 00:51:15,910 --> 00:51:18,571 And in fact, and especially for- >> [LAUGH] 759 00:51:18,571 --> 00:51:19,214 >> [CROSSTALK] I personally don't 760 00:51:19,214 --> 00:51:20,755 think that RCTs are actually appropriate for complex social [INAUDIBLE]. 761 00:51:20,755 --> 00:51:25,422 >> Absolutely. >> And I think that's part of the problem 762 00:51:25,422 --> 00:51:32,957 is that RTCs come through this very positivist look at the world, 763 00:51:32,957 --> 00:51:37,073 and that works for certain things. 764 00:51:37,073 --> 00:51:41,251 You want that or gravity, and you want that for the pill and 765 00:51:41,251 --> 00:51:43,880 you want that for certain things. 766 00:51:43,880 --> 00:51:48,420 But when you're taking something out of those contexts where things 767 00:51:48,420 --> 00:51:55,022 are controllable and bound by physics, and you go into the wicked problem 768 00:51:55,022 --> 00:52:00,240 zone of social problems and social service systems and are trying to apply science. 769 00:52:02,310 --> 00:52:05,796 I feel like there was a big push in social sciences to be like, well, 770 00:52:05,796 --> 00:52:10,030 we're gonna do real science, and to prove it, we're gonna be like this is this. 771 00:52:10,030 --> 00:52:13,557 But the real world is really way too messy. 772 00:52:13,557 --> 00:52:18,367 I mean, that's part of what excites me about [INAUDIBLE] is 773 00:52:18,367 --> 00:52:22,990 that it starts giving me different ways to think about. 774 00:52:22,990 --> 00:52:28,269 How do you do analytic scientific work in something where you can't 775 00:52:28,269 --> 00:52:33,548 break things down, where they're not linear, where they're not 776 00:52:33,548 --> 00:52:38,840 going to be clean the way need they need to be clean for an [INAUDIBLE]. 777 00:52:38,840 --> 00:52:42,309 >> I'm gonna say that we should thank- >> [LAUGH] 778 00:52:42,309 --> 00:52:43,518 >> [INAUDIBLE] for this talk right now and 779 00:52:43,518 --> 00:52:45,124 then continue the discussion afterwards, so. 780 00:52:45,124 --> 00:52:50,574 >> [APPLAUSE] >> Thank you. 781 00:52:50,574 --> 00:52:53,789 If you need to [CROSSTALK] screwing around, that's okay, we'll keep talking. 782 00:52:53,789 --> 00:52:55,456 >> I'll leave the recorder on for a little longer. 783 00:52:55,456 --> 00:53:00,631 >> You guys talked about very positivists versus realists but 784 00:53:00,631 --> 00:53:03,435 he mentioned constructivism. 785 00:53:03,435 --> 00:53:04,939 How does that fit into it? 786 00:53:04,939 --> 00:53:07,461 How does the constructivists approach? 787 00:53:07,461 --> 00:53:10,812 >> [INAUDIBLE] >> [LAUGH] [INAUDIBLE] think 788 00:53:10,812 --> 00:53:11,964 it's good when we both talk. 789 00:53:11,964 --> 00:53:14,596 >> [INAUDIBLE] >> I actually like [INAUDIBLE]. 790 00:53:14,596 --> 00:53:19,532 I like the idea of co-constructive realities and 791 00:53:19,532 --> 00:53:27,172 that's what is always going on is that we're engaged in reality creation and 792 00:53:27,172 --> 00:53:32,124 meaning making with all that we're countering. 793 00:53:32,124 --> 00:53:38,927 When I do qualitative research and when I approach my analysis, I can [INAUDIBLE]. 794 00:53:38,927 --> 00:53:42,288 Constructivists, that was kind of my starter part, but 795 00:53:42,288 --> 00:53:45,584 I haven't worked through it [INAUDIBLE] more recently. 796 00:53:45,584 --> 00:53:53,882 I like the idea that there are many different realities and 797 00:53:53,882 --> 00:53:59,310 that we're going to allow them this. 798 00:53:59,310 --> 00:54:03,777 I'm not the best person to talk to you about startups and ontology, though, 799 00:54:03,777 --> 00:54:05,574 because I'm very pragmatic. 800 00:54:05,574 --> 00:54:09,493 And at the end of the day, 801 00:54:09,493 --> 00:54:15,852 what I really want to do is this. 802 00:54:15,852 --> 00:54:18,560 So I see this as like ways to not fall into traps. 803 00:54:18,560 --> 00:54:25,193 There are ways to, I think, help keep examining and reflecting on biases and 804 00:54:25,193 --> 00:54:30,413 mechanics inside of analysis and data collection. 805 00:54:30,413 --> 00:54:35,506 But then there are people who really 806 00:54:35,506 --> 00:54:42,310 going into the kind of metaphysics of science. 807 00:54:42,310 --> 00:54:44,610 That's never gonna be me [LAUGH]. 808 00:54:44,610 --> 00:54:47,309 [CROSSTALK] They all kind of take the paradigm that, 809 00:54:47,309 --> 00:54:50,467 I think about paradigms the same way I think about methods. 810 00:54:50,467 --> 00:54:54,987 Is take the paradigm that is going to get you the most useful answer to your search 811 00:54:54,987 --> 00:54:56,009 question [LAUGH]. 812 00:54:56,009 --> 00:54:57,737 So I mean, sometimes that is positivist, right? 813 00:54:57,737 --> 00:55:01,984 Again, if you're talking about physics, 814 00:55:01,984 --> 00:55:05,895 then you don't wanna, or maybe you do. 815 00:55:05,895 --> 00:55:10,128 You wanna think about multiple realities if you're going into a quantum level 816 00:55:10,128 --> 00:55:10,775 but [LAUGH]. 817 00:55:10,775 --> 00:55:15,807 I'm kind of in favor of like all paradigms being just lens and 818 00:55:15,807 --> 00:55:21,036 ways that we are filtering or focusing our biases or our views, 819 00:55:21,036 --> 00:55:25,280 or the way that we're approaching our analysis and 820 00:55:25,280 --> 00:55:28,061 our interpretation [INAUDIBLE]. 821 00:55:28,061 --> 00:55:30,336 No, you were about to speak when I kinda interrupted you with the process. 822 00:55:30,336 --> 00:55:33,094 >> It could be that I'm no longer good at [INAUDIBLE]. 823 00:55:33,094 --> 00:55:35,818 >> [LAUGH] 824 00:55:35,818 --> 00:55:40,781 >> So I have to ask this Okay, 825 00:55:40,781 --> 00:55:46,631 is it commendable to focus the [INAUDIBLE] 826 00:55:46,631 --> 00:55:51,971 because I have a conventional view. 827 00:55:51,971 --> 00:55:57,739 I would say the heart of science is the possibility of false conclusions. 828 00:55:57,739 --> 00:56:03,763 I think that's as bottom line as things get in science and 829 00:56:03,763 --> 00:56:08,795 if you can't falsify anything, that I think. 830 00:56:08,795 --> 00:56:14,375 >> Well, I think that I mean, I haven't seen someone who's not actually 831 00:56:14,375 --> 00:56:19,777 done with this, I can imagine in my head that your CMO might not test. 832 00:56:19,777 --> 00:56:25,299 If you're testing your GMO as a theory, it might not cast doubt. 833 00:56:25,299 --> 00:56:29,955 There might be pathways in that you don't find [CROSSTALK] evidence over 834 00:56:29,955 --> 00:56:32,373 the data that the whole thing could. 835 00:56:32,373 --> 00:56:34,317 I couldn't see it not. 836 00:56:34,317 --> 00:56:39,386 >> You could just accidentally falsify, you have to design for that, I think. 837 00:56:39,386 --> 00:56:40,357 >> Well. 838 00:56:40,357 --> 00:56:43,358 >> Well I don't know, people might not have actually, 839 00:56:43,358 --> 00:56:45,167 everybody could've hated it. 840 00:56:45,167 --> 00:56:50,149 >> What you're picturing, as, for me a very complex model, and 841 00:56:50,149 --> 00:56:57,011 you're doing one intervention, right on the email, the intervention many people. 842 00:56:57,011 --> 00:57:02,050 Many people are involved, still it's one intervention that whow could you 843 00:57:02,050 --> 00:57:07,089 possibly tease out all the different connections of multiple mechanisms, 844 00:57:07,089 --> 00:57:10,092 multiple contexts, multiple algorithms. 845 00:57:10,092 --> 00:57:10,911 >> You can. 846 00:57:10,911 --> 00:57:14,310 >> But again, you can't. 847 00:57:14,310 --> 00:57:19,370 And so given that, maybe you could say overall this thing failed this, 848 00:57:20,400 --> 00:57:22,810 but you will never know what about it? 849 00:57:24,680 --> 00:57:25,410 >> That's not true. 850 00:57:25,410 --> 00:57:30,956 I think that's exactly your critique of the trials approach is it could fail and 851 00:57:30,956 --> 00:57:35,535 you could know next to nothing about what it was about it, right? 852 00:57:35,535 --> 00:57:39,610 But I think another issue here and we don't have time and I'm definitely not 853 00:57:39,610 --> 00:57:44,147 able to articulate this very well, but the positivity literature does a great job. 854 00:57:44,147 --> 00:57:48,381 Is the other another difference between realism, the positives and 855 00:57:48,381 --> 00:57:52,060 the constructivist is their understanding of pausality. 856 00:57:52,060 --> 00:57:56,016 And that's really foundational approach to their realist approach and 857 00:57:56,016 --> 00:57:58,114 to your question, but can't go there. 858 00:57:58,114 --> 00:57:58,704 I gotta go. 859 00:57:58,704 --> 00:58:00,699 [CROSSTALK] >> [LAUGH] 860 00:58:00,699 --> 00:58:02,299 >> And I think there's also, 861 00:58:02,299 --> 00:58:05,082 I mean speaking in the positivity literature, 862 00:58:05,082 --> 00:58:07,041 there's a big thing about that. 863 00:58:07,041 --> 00:58:11,666 And it's like it gets you down your system because you can always come up with some 864 00:58:11,666 --> 00:58:15,014 other reason and you can get down into this little nuance. 865 00:58:15,014 --> 00:58:20,853 And if they need, you can go on and on forever, but there are some like larger, 866 00:58:20,853 --> 00:58:25,660 more likely things that need to be examined at something point. 867 00:58:25,660 --> 00:58:31,456 Those bits are statistically inactive way, 868 00:58:31,456 --> 00:58:34,939 but in a reality way not useful. 869 00:58:34,939 --> 00:58:38,223 >> [CROSSTALK] >> Like what someone had for breakfast, 870 00:58:38,223 --> 00:58:44,085 maybe relate to something but you make a decision at some point to bound your 871 00:58:44,085 --> 00:58:49,110 system that you're not going to go and data on what people had for 872 00:58:49,110 --> 00:58:52,950 breakfast because it's unlike to be that huge. 873 00:58:52,950 --> 00:58:53,881 >> Well. [CROSSTALK] 874 00:58:53,881 --> 00:58:54,896 >> Go ahead. 875 00:58:54,896 --> 00:58:59,616 >> It seems to me that you're proposing a model in 876 00:58:59,616 --> 00:59:04,586 the beginning, it through your study. 877 00:59:04,586 --> 00:59:08,826 You're learning to study among other things 878 00:59:08,826 --> 00:59:12,781 division that would give you not one results, but 879 00:59:12,781 --> 00:59:18,070 a set of percentage is now close to that initial beginning effect. 880 00:59:19,470 --> 00:59:24,163 Now, if you call that a positivist hypothesis, 881 00:59:24,163 --> 00:59:31,151 I need to be given a different sample and you use that for the set of tests. 882 00:59:31,151 --> 00:59:38,485 You would then be able to apply statistics to the new hypothesis versus your sample. 883 00:59:38,485 --> 00:59:41,067 >> [CROSSTALK] to the question that you're asking. 884 00:59:41,067 --> 00:59:41,817 >> Right, I think when you were talking about. 885 00:59:41,817 --> 00:59:45,140 >> Science questions. 886 00:59:45,140 --> 00:59:50,134 >> In science too is, I mean we live in the world of we get paid to do 887 00:59:50,134 --> 00:59:54,183 research and evaluate social programs, right? 888 00:59:54,183 --> 00:59:58,586 Which is a very different set of questions that realist don't say 889 00:59:58,586 --> 01:00:01,718 all the positives you're not so stupid here. 890 01:00:01,718 --> 01:00:02,390 That's not it at all. 891 01:00:02,390 --> 01:00:09,727 It's about what is appropriate given what it is that we're trying to understand. 892 01:00:09,727 --> 01:00:11,801 >> Yes, but I'm not suggesting that. 893 01:00:11,801 --> 01:00:16,167 What I'm suggesting is your original method let 894 01:00:16,167 --> 01:00:20,007 teaches you something about population. 895 01:00:20,007 --> 01:00:21,567 >> Yeah, you could do it like that. 896 01:00:21,567 --> 01:00:25,292 >> And then you begin to find the population and 897 01:00:25,292 --> 01:00:30,123 see if your method works on one group versus another, but 898 01:00:30,123 --> 01:00:34,869 you can't do but you do it on the second step. 899 01:00:34,869 --> 01:00:39,808 And that second step is a perfectly valid way of making you look at 900 01:00:39,808 --> 01:00:42,104 where you'll find. 901 01:00:42,104 --> 01:00:43,968 >> And that's part of that derivative [CROSSTALK]. 902 01:00:43,968 --> 01:00:49,963 >> That gets a plus viable process. 903 01:00:49,963 --> 01:00:55,081 >> Well again, I think I realist would say falsifiable as applied to 904 01:00:55,081 --> 01:01:01,050 these sorts of questions is, I mean we're playing fast and lose with that. 905 01:01:01,050 --> 01:01:04,121 With what we willing defined as false and 906 01:01:04,121 --> 01:01:09,281 again that comes down to what realist understand about [INAUDIBLE]. 907 01:01:09,281 --> 01:01:14,010 >> [INAUDIBLE] specific way, having one group work with another. 908 01:01:14,010 --> 01:01:15,276 That can be tested. 909 01:01:15,276 --> 01:01:20,124 >> Right, but that's a somewhat different notion of falsified delay and 910 01:01:20,124 --> 01:01:24,417 that is this worth it or do we get a, You're gonna not [CROSSTALK] 911 01:01:24,417 --> 01:01:27,043 >> It is not what you're paid to do 912 01:01:27,043 --> 01:01:30,679 whether or not we wanna believe it or not and 913 01:01:30,679 --> 01:01:36,250 that's what they want you do to and that's what their paid to do. 914 01:01:36,250 --> 01:01:41,858 [CROSSTALK] >> Yeah, and after 25 years we have. 915 01:01:41,858 --> 01:01:49,597 [CROSSTALK] >> Thanks for having me. 916 01:01:49,597 --> 01:01:52,483 >> Thanks for coming and I'm gonna stop the recording and- 917 01:01:52,483 --> 01:01:58,043 >> [CROSSTALK] 918 01:01:58,043 --> 01:02:01,032 >> [LAUGH]