1
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Thanks for having me.

2
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Greetings from beautiful
downtown Portland.

3
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This is a neat
little study.

4
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I think it's neat
study I embarked

5
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upon with Julia bond
and Monte Manson,

6
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current and former
colleagues.

7
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Those of you who've
seen me talk before,

8
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I like to have my science,

9
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the title, and then

10
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my less pretentious
time doing that.

11
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But we're not
really talking

12
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about true bugs here.

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We're talking
about a beetle,

14
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emerald ash borer,
which we will

15
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call it BG for the
purposes of this talk.

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And gorillas,
planet pedis,

17
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federalists is actually

18
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the largest animal genus.

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Trivia.

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If you don't remember

21
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anything from this type,

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remember that it
has been talk wood

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boring beetle lives

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one to two years
depending on climate.

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Host quality is a
host specialist

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or the genus Praxis,

27
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which is the genus,

28
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sometimes spills over to

29
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other species
within that family.

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The only see
doll and family.

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It is from East Asia where

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incest only stressed
fraction of trees,

33
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which makes sense,
co-evolved with them.

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Now there's things
there they eat it or

35
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specialized and eating EAB

36
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and specialized in eating

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ash trees that have
defenses for EAB.

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In North America
and actually in

39
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Eastern Europe that
it is a major pest.

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And NFS healthy and

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stressed Frank's
Louis trees

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evolutionarily naive
for accidents.

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Trees aren't native
North American Francis,

44
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there's a little guy first

45
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detected in
Michigan in 2002,

46
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which means it arrived

47
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in early nineties,
mid-1990s,

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probably on infested
wound packing

49
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material from East Asia.

50
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Currently it's
western most

51
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known population is in

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Colorado and you can
get around the West

53
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doesn't have a
lot praxis in it.

54
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So it's kind of up against

55
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a barrier there of
natural dispersal.

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But of course
human dispersal.

57
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The sky's the limit
how far it can go.

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It's not a question of

59
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if it'll reach or

60
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it could have been
a west coast.

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It's when without a doubt,

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it is when we

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don't know when that's
going to happen.

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It is going to happen.

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The impacts from the
eastern seaboard,

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most of the focus has

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been on the urban forest.

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Forest, that's where
most people live.

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They see these impacts to

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their street trees
and they got

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up high or an arborist,

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municipalities
have to deal

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with all these dead trees.

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Sanitation for them,
huge costs and

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risks to human
health and safety,

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however, are concerned.

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It's out here
for a few years

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and is now being
shown them and make

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eastern seaboard with
black ass swamps

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is that there are
massive disruptions.

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Water quality, food webs.

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You name it as you would

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expect to very important

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in tree genius
Black Ash guys

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is Oregon ash are other
study species here,

86
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which unfortunately
with greenhouse studies

87
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from the East Coast,

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looks like Oregon asks,

89
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is probably the
most susceptible of

90
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all 15 or 16 North
American native species.

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Oh wow.

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Here's Oregon
answers range.

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It is a, I can grow to be

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a huge tree or
early successional,

95
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the late successional
habitat, right,

96
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Jerry in floodplains,
also uplands.

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There's, it's rains
down into California.

98
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California has
two other species

99
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which are smaller trees.

100
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Usually. This is
a critical tree

101
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for a low elevation,

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low gradient
riparian settings

103
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for shading and
providing structure

104
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and all sorts of it
are pretty benefits

105
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will wildlife and
specialized ligands

106
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and insects and only
eat asked et cetera.

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When EAB arise, we expect

108
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enroll or organ to be
functionally extinct.

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Basically, you're
not going to see

110
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that very often.

111
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I'll be won't go
totally extinct.

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Or research
questions, what

113
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is the contribution
of work and

114
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asked the local Re period

115
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and canopy and what's

116
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going to happen to that?

117
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It'll be at a waterfall
after VAB arrives.

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We keep speculating
about this in a region,

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are going to asked
EAB, well heck,

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let's use our science in

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mines and trying to
figure something out.

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Here's our two
water bodies

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to studying systems.

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Columbia sludge onto
Creek, obviously,

125
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very different
water bodies

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plug the slope
partially title,

127
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pumped dikes, levees, etc.

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Johnson preach,
higher gradients,

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more mineral soils
through a bunch of ag,

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land there in the East

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and then go and build it.

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Urbanization.

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We selected a
number of quadrats.

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I'll see you the
number soon. 30 by

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30 meter quadrats along

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these two stream reaches
we've broken up.

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We be looking at
vegetation has

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a different
contribution to

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shading and cooling
for the streams.

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We then characterized,

141
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quantify the canopy at

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different
vegetation levels,

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structures, and then

144
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determine what proportion

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of that was already
going to ask

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for each of
those vegetate,

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late, start, codon,
et cetera, et cetera.

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Kinda the number
of stems counted,

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all the other
species still

150
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pretty full dataset.

151
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262 quadrants over 5.2%

152
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of the area along
that 30-meter buffer,

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north and south for
those stream reaches.

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So, Oh, I thought
pie in the sky, 3%.

155
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We've got five weeks.

156
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So pretty robust
power there.

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I'm just going to show
you some quick fingers

158
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or FK to be abundance.

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Obviously, West and East,

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you can see along

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those three bands
color-coded.

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Let me just look at
Edward organized.

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There's a lot of what
we're going to use.

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A tree. This is
dominant over story.

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Johns Creek of West
enchanting treat yeast.

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Once again, not
as much Oregon,

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but there's some points.

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So what about what
does this mean?

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Well, we use the shade a

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later module with it in

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the heat source
model meeting like

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Oregon dq for calculating
temperature TMDLs,

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total maximum daily loads.

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The City of Portland
has an find

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some regulatory
requirements when it

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comes to all sorts
of TMD else.

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So this is a big
deal for us just

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from a regulatory
standpoint.

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We use those data
sets we collected.

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And then we use the 2019

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LIDAR LIDAR data sets

182
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for absolute heights of

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vegetation Along those
stream reaches for

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those fibrous joints

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00:06:53,690 --> 00:06:55,070
creak effective
shade scenario.

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So effective shade
is the amount of

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solar radiation
blocked by vegetation.

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Based off that lidar
and our data-sets,

189
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Here's the max
potential of

190
00:07:03,230 --> 00:07:05,330
what could occur with

191
00:07:05,330 --> 00:07:07,295
native vegetation heights

192
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along Johnson creek.

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It's not equal straight
line across there.

194
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And that's because
obviously you'll remember,

195
00:07:15,080 --> 00:07:16,430
does all sorts of
different things

196
00:07:16,430 --> 00:07:17,719
to different aspects

197
00:07:17,719 --> 00:07:20,720
and slopes along
the bank, etc.

198
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Here is their current
shading scenario.

199
00:07:23,825 --> 00:07:26,600
There's parking lots
and all sorts of things

200
00:07:26,600 --> 00:07:29,930
along jointing treat
farm, so the same.

201
00:07:29,930 --> 00:07:32,720
And here it is, if
we lose assets of

202
00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:35,270
five to 10 percent
increase in solar loading,

203
00:07:35,270 --> 00:07:36,830
and I know that doesn't
look like much.

204
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It go well, that
orangey stuff.

205
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It's almost
there that occur

206
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and shade scenarios.

207
00:07:43,490 --> 00:07:47,030
But really these both
the stream reaches

208
00:07:47,030 --> 00:07:49,520
these water bodies already

209
00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:50,780
kinda maxed out and

210
00:07:50,780 --> 00:07:52,490
just getting
hotter and hotter.

211
00:07:52,490 --> 00:07:54,200
And that five to 10
percent increase in

212
00:07:54,200 --> 00:07:56,810
solar loading is
quite significant.

213
00:07:56,810 --> 00:07:58,430
It's hard to say exactly

214
00:07:58,430 --> 00:07:59,885
what that will
mean in terms of

215
00:07:59,885 --> 00:08:02,090
degrees temperature
at a certain time

216
00:08:02,090 --> 00:08:03,770
of the year. But it's not.

217
00:08:03,770 --> 00:08:07,700
I feel that we're

218
00:08:07,700 --> 00:08:10,550
still analyzing
data as we speak.

219
00:08:10,550 --> 00:08:12,650
In summary, Oregon
to ask represents

220
00:08:12,650 --> 00:08:14,630
a substantial component
of these watersheds,

221
00:08:14,630 --> 00:08:14,810
right?

222
00:08:14,810 --> 00:08:17,240
Period. And at
least 1516 to

223
00:08:17,240 --> 00:08:21,695
50% to water bodies
composed of organisms.

224
00:08:21,695 --> 00:08:24,560
However, these
water bodies

225
00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:28,070
going to create
a lot of apps,

226
00:08:28,070 --> 00:08:31,550
but they are
not respective.

227
00:08:31,550 --> 00:08:36,305
Most move 3D and low
elevation trips.

228
00:08:36,305 --> 00:08:37,790
The Willamette or lower at

229
00:08:37,790 --> 00:08:40,025
Columbia along
Let's Walton,

230
00:08:40,025 --> 00:08:43,865
our own 12th and just
there to Southwest,

231
00:08:43,865 --> 00:08:46,310
even the lower 12th
and probably this is

232
00:08:46,310 --> 00:08:48,500
anecdotal 90 percent
ash upper its wall

233
00:08:48,500 --> 00:08:49,700
through with that
photo is just

234
00:08:49,700 --> 00:08:51,320
from a few days ago,

235
00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:54,505
flooding nicely like
a 100 percent Ash

236
00:08:54,505 --> 00:08:57,790
along big stretches out.

237
00:08:57,790 --> 00:08:59,170
So what's going to
happen? We lose

238
00:08:59,170 --> 00:09:00,730
all that ash,
kind of a bummer.

239
00:09:00,730 --> 00:09:01,885
Probably.

240
00:09:01,885 --> 00:09:03,460
A key remaining questions.

241
00:09:03,460 --> 00:09:04,600
Have we made a
trait varying

242
00:09:04,600 --> 00:09:06,490
systems to moderate
future impacts?

243
00:09:06,490 --> 00:09:07,930
We know this
things common.

244
00:09:07,930 --> 00:09:10,240
We don't know when.
The other issue

245
00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:11,950
is, folks in the reading.

246
00:09:11,950 --> 00:09:14,050
We just can't
help ourselves.

247
00:09:14,050 --> 00:09:15,955
Planting Oregon asked for

248
00:09:15,955 --> 00:09:18,010
Chegg credits in the
right period settings.

249
00:09:18,010 --> 00:09:19,030
It does break.

250
00:09:19,030 --> 00:09:20,770
Be reelected to it
once in a while,

251
00:09:20,770 --> 00:09:22,210
but it's just a workforce

252
00:09:22,210 --> 00:09:24,100
do nothing seems to really

253
00:09:24,100 --> 00:09:28,480
kill it until
the baby comes.

254
00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:30,100
So how are we
going to prepare

255
00:09:30,100 --> 00:09:32,770
for this future
cat astride?

256
00:09:32,770 --> 00:09:37,655
Catastrophic loss
of big clap.

257
00:09:37,655 --> 00:09:41,720
I like that quack,
quack. What else day?

258
00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:43,640
I know I'm going on my
laptop there early on,

259
00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:44,900
a potential
replacements for

260
00:09:44,900 --> 00:09:46,670
Oregon assets open
for discussion.

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00:09:46,670 --> 00:09:49,535
We I'm ideas and I put
that last thing there.

262
00:09:49,535 --> 00:09:52,355
You can Google
that with ODF,

263
00:09:52,355 --> 00:09:53,690
Oregon Department
of Forestry

264
00:09:53,690 --> 00:09:56,870
seed collection
efforts going on.

265
00:09:56,870 --> 00:09:57,920
And these are all the

266
00:09:57,920 --> 00:09:59,240
partners who assisted us.

267
00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:00,260
And he says system, but

268
00:10:00,260 --> 00:10:01,460
also that we coordinated

269
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with to gain access
to public properties.

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And thank you to

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all the private
property owners

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00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:07,520
who led us well
into their land,

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especially out and
boring where you

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drive up the
City of Portland

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truck way out in
some rural form.

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Not necessarily friendly
from the get-go.

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Everybody wound up mostly.

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Thank you.