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Technical Report

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Oregon City School District, Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, School enrollment -- Oregon -- Oregon City -- Forecasting, Demographic surveys -- Oregon -- Oregon City


The main body of this report presents Oregon City School District (OCSD) district‐wide and individual school forecasts prepared by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the 2012‐13 to 2021‐22 school years. The forecasts were prepared in March, 2012, before the school board’s April 16 vote to close Mt. Pleasant and King Elementary Schools and move 6th grade to middle schools. Therefore, the school forecasts represent the status quo as of March, including forecasts for the closed schools and for middle schools consisting of 7th and 8th grade only. A complete report was not issued with the March forecasts, because PRC’s intention was to redistribute the district‐wide forecasts based on the new school boundaries upon receipt of digital boundary files reflecting the changes, and then base the report on the updated school forecasts. The OCSD school board approved new boundaries on May 14, 2012, but digital files in the ArcGIS shapefile format used by PRC were not available from Clackamas County GIS until October, 2012. Because the reconfiguration was complete by that time and the new school year had begun, it made no sense to redistribute the March forecasts that did not incorporate the latest district‐wide enrollment figures. Instead, an upcoming study will included district‐wide and individual school forecasts using Fall 2012 enrollments. Preliminary district‐wide forecasts based on Fall 2012 enrollments are included in this report.

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