Document Type

Technical Report

Publication Date



Canby School District, Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, School enrollment -- Oregon -- Canby -- Forecasting, Demographic surveys -- Oregon -- Canby


The Canby School District (CSD) enrolled 5,154 students in Fall 2007, an increase of 79 students (1.6 percent) from Fall 2006. Most of the increase is directly attributable to families living in new housing developed within the District. A relatively large incoming kindergarten class also played a role in the growth. This report presents the results of an updated demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2008-09 to 2012-13 school years. We forecast relatively stable K-12 enrollment totals for the next five years. Based on historic trends in births, migration, and housing construction and our judgment of future trends, we conclude that the average enrollment changes of the next five years are most likely to fall between the large loss that occurred in 2006-07 and the growth that occurred in 2007-08. We are also forecasting relatively stable elementary enrollment, but middle school enrollments are likely to increase and high school enrollments decrease due to the sizes of current classes advancing through secondary schools.

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