Sponsor
This work was supported by the National Fire Plan, Forest Health Monitoring (NE-F-08-01), and the Eastern Landfire Prototype.
Published In
PLoS ONE
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
8-13-2014
Subjects
Gypsy moth, Climatic changes, Carbon sequestration -- Environmental aspects, Pine Barrens (N.J.), Forest management
Abstract
Disturbance regimes within temperate forests can significantly impact carbon cycling. Additionally, projected climate change in combination with multiple, interacting disturbance effects may disrupt the capacity of forests to act as carbon sinks at large spatial and temporal scales. We used a spatially explicit forest succession and disturbance model, LANDIS-II, to model the effects of climate change, gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) defoliation, and wildfire on the C dynamics of the forests of the New Jersey Pine Barrens over the next century. Climate scenarios were simulated using current climate conditions (baseline), as well as a high emissions scenario (HadCM3 A2 emissions scenario). Our results suggest that long-term changes in C cycling will be driven more by climate change than by fire or gypsy moths over the next century. We also found that simulated disturbances will affect species composition more than tree growth or C sequestration rates at the landscape level. Projected changes in tree species biomass indicate a potential increase in oaks with climate change and gypsy moth defoliation over the course of the 100-year simulation, exacerbating current successional trends towards increased oak abundance. Our research suggests that defoliation under climate change may play a critical role in increasing the variability of tree growth rates and in determining landscape species composition over the next 100 years.
Rights
This is an open-access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.
DOI
10.1371/journal.pone.0102531
Persistent Identifier
http://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/12450
Citation Details
Kretchun, A.M., R.M. Scheller, M.S. Lucash, K.L. Clark, J. Hom and S. Van Tuyl. 2014. Predicted Effects of Gypsy Moth Defoliation and Climate Change on Forest Carbon Dynamics in the New Jersey Pine Barrens. PLoS ONE 9(8): e102531. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0102531