Technology Forecasting Using DEA in the Presence of Infeasibility
International Transactions in Operations Research
As a predictive application of data envelopment analysis (DEA), technology forecasting using DEA (TFDEA) measures the rate of frontier shift by which the arrival of future technologies can be estimated. However, it is well known that DEA and therefore TFDEA may suffer from the issue of infeasible super-efficiency especially under the condition of variable returns to scale. This study develops an extended TFDEA model based on the modified super-efficiency model proposed in the literature, which has the benefit of yielding radial super-efficiency scores equivalent to those obtained from the original super-efficiency model when feasibility is present. The previously published application of liquid crystal displays (LCD) is revisited to illustrate the use of the new model. The results show that the proposed approach makes a reasonable forecast for formerly infeasible targets as well as a consistent forecast for feasible targets.
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Lim, D. J. (2018). Technology forecasting using DEA in the presence of infeasibility. International Transactions in Operational Research, 25(5), 1695-1706.