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Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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Technological forecasting, Data envelopment analysis


Although it has stood the test of time for over 30 years, Moore's Law addresses but a single aspect of microprocessor design. As a proxy for technology, the number of transistors in an integrated circuit represents a limited perspective on the technology as a whole. Anderson et al. proposed a set of metrics by which to measure a technology, and a means to measure its progress over time utilizing data envelopment analysis. In this revised model, the assumption of state of the art (SOA) on product release is dropped, technical progress is measured iteratively over time, the effective time elapsed between the SOA and a no longer SOA has been refined to include a weighted average, and a means of utilizing proxy DMUs was implemented to maintain the dataset over time.


NOTICE: this is the author's version of a work that was accepted for publication in Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change



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