Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Technological forecasting, Data envelopment analysis
Although it has stood the test of time for over 30 years, Moore's Law addresses but a single aspect of microprocessor design. As a proxy for technology, the number of transistors in an integrated circuit represents a limited perspective on the technology as a whole. Anderson et al. proposed a set of metrics by which to measure a technology, and a means to measure its progress over time utilizing data envelopment analysis. In this revised model, the assumption of state of the art (SOA) on product release is dropped, technical progress is measured iteratively over time, the effective time elapsed between the SOA and a no longer SOA has been refined to include a weighted average, and a means of utilizing proxy DMUs was implemented to maintain the dataset over time.
Locate the Document
Anderson, Timothy R.; Färe, Rolf; Grosskopf, Shawna; Inman, Lane; and Song, Xiaoyu, "Further Examination of Moore's Law with Data Envelopment Analysis" (2002). Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations. Paper 41. http://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/9648