The Future of Rail Automation: A Scenario-Based Technology Roadmap for the Rail Automation Market
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Technological Change, Technology -- Management, Technology assessment -- Decision making
This paper proposes a four-step approach based on technology roadmapping and scenario-based roadmapping. The objective is to evaluate the relevance of new products and technologies and its variation under a range of possible future conditions or scenarios. A case study on rail automation for passenger transport systems is conducted to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method. Market drivers, new systems, products and technologies are identified in a literature review and then verified and linked by expert judgments. Analyzing the resulting graphical representation of relevance and robustness from the proposed approach leads to a periodization of products and technologies for future development and an evaluation of the most influential market driver. The proposed approach for scenario-based technology roadmapping facilitates robust decision making under future uncertainties.
Hansen, C., Daim, T., Ernst, H., & Herstatt, C. (2016). The future of rail automation: A scenario-based technology roadmap for the rail automation market. Technological Forecasting and Social Change.