Document Type

Closed Project

Publication Date

Fall 2016


Jisun Kim

Course Title

Technology Forecasting

Course Number

ETM 532/632


Electric household appliances, Energy efficiency, Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance, Technological forecastin


Energy efficiency is now estimated to be the third source of electricity in the USA (in the form of virtual power capacity equal to the savings resulted from efficiency).

The Pacific NorthWest is among the leading regions in the US when it comes to energy efficiency [1, 2], in fact, it is estimated that energy efficiency will meet all the new demands in the Pacific NorthWest region through 2035.

The Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEEA), is an alliance of more than 140 Northwest utilities and energy efficiency organizations, dedicated to accelerating both electric and gas energy efficiency, leveraging its regional partnerships to advance the adoption of energy-efficient products, services and practices.

One product NEEA has been evaluating recently is super-efficient dryers, a product that promises energy efficiency as much as 40% of the current energy being consumed by a typical dryer in the region [4]. Before NEEA can promote and support this product, they need to understand its market potentials, so two separated studies were conducted to forecast this product future, however; the studies indicated different results.

In this project, the objectives are to forecast the adoption and market share of super-efficient dryers (SED’s) and to provide additional information that could help organizations like NEEA to promote and disseminate SED’s, creating market transformations towards the adoption of energy efficient products. More specifically, our goal is to help NEEA by providing them with yet another counter-factual model of the super efficient dryers adoption (focusing on a specific market segment), and also to enable NEEA to use this model as a tool to convince manufacturers to increase their marketing efforts towards a larger adoption. The next section brings a literature review on technology forecasting, energy efficiency and other important topics for this study, followed by methodology, analysis and results, conclusions, limitations and future research.


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This project is only available to students, staff, and faculty of Portland State University

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