Document Type

Closed Project

Publication Date

Winter 2012


Jisun Kim

Course Title

Technology Forecasting

Course Number

ETM 532/632


Photovoltaic power systems -- Forecasting, Solar cells -- Technological innovations, Technology -- Forecasting


Electricity generation in the United States is primarily based on fossil fuels with very little of it coming from renewable energy sources. In the last few years the proportion of electricity generated by non hydropower based renewable sources has remained constant while generation from fossil fuels has increased.

In this project, the team provides a background of the sources of renewable electricity in the United States. We discuss thin film solar photovoltaics in detail with analyses of the strengths and weakness of this material.

Collected data regarding historical manufacturing costs and current prices of electricity are used to put together a scenario analyses which could predict the viability of thin film solar panels. These factors include:

  • Human/Government factors
  • Manufacturing trends
  • Consideration of cost of ownership
  • Conversion factors to compare solar power to standard electrical power.
  • Environmental impact factors

In researching this topic, the team was unable to find an adequate forecasting model. The team adds to the existing body of knowledge by providing a couple of scenario analyses which can be used to predict the adoption of thin film solar panels.


This project is only available to students, staff, and faculty of Portland State University

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