PERT and the Beta Distribution
Abstract and citation only.
PERT scheduling methods rely on calculations derived from the Beta Distribution. This project designed a survey to test the validity of Beta distribution in estimating activity time. 125 respondents estimated activity times for twelve diverse tasks and rated their knowledge level for these tasks as high, some or none. Cumulative distributions were plotted for each knowledge level of each task. None of the 36 distributions were found to be actual Normal or Beta distributions.