Date of Award
Crime forecasting -- Oregon -- Portland, Crime prevention -- Oregon -- Portland, Prediction of criminal behavior, Campus police -- Oregon -- Portland, Portland State University
Although many want to believe that campuses are safe and free of crime acts, there is a reason for the campus public safety department. Reed College, Lewis and Clark College, and University of Portland all rank as safer schools than Portland State University (PSU) (Niche, 2017). The parking garages and lots in particular have a large number of crimes (Enger, 2016). Using predictive analytics to forecast crime is becoming very popular with large police departments within the last few years. It emphasizes the importance of collecting crime data and created a use for past incident reports. The goal of the experiment is to identify patterns in crime in PSU’s parking structures and lots, and to use those patterns to characterize and forecast future crime. Overall, to conduct this experiment I used both quantitative and qualitative approaches. The majority of this project was done with quantitative approaches however. I did multiple calculations to find base rates and make a prediction. After forecasting future crime, I designed an intervention to give to Campus Public Safety (CPSO) to implement. Currently no research has been done on predictive policing in the PSL at Portland State University. All the data development was from PSU CPSO’s Daily Activity Log (DAL); a hard copy record of daily incident reports. The average number of incidents per year is 183. The average number of crimes that occur per week is 3.5. On any day, I am mostly certain that crime will occur between 1000 and 1700, with an even higher chance at 1300 hours and 1500 hours.
Enger, Kiley D., "Predictive Policing on Portland State University's Campus" (2017). University Honors Theses. Paper 455.