Probabilistic Modelling of the Concept of Anticipation in Aviation
Theoretical Issues in Ergonomics Science
Avionics -- Safety measures, Avionics -- Human factors -- Statistical methods, Aviation psychology
Two problems concerning anticipation effort as an important cognitive resource for improved avionics safety are addressed: (1) assessment of the probability that the random actual (‘subjective’) anticipation time is below the (also random) available (‘objective’) time and (2) evaluation of the likelihood of success of the random short-term anticipation from the predetermined (non-random) long-term anticipation. Unlike the traditional statistical approach, when experimentations are done first and are followed by statistical analyses, our novel concept suggests that probabilistic predictive modelling is done first and is followed by experimentation. The concept proceeds from the fundamental understanding that nobody and nothing is perfect and that the difference between a success and a failure in a particular effort, a situation, or a mission is, in effect, ‘merely’ the difference in the level of the never-zero probability of failure.
Locate the Document
PSU affiliates use Find in PSU library link at top.
Unaffiliated researchers can access the work here: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1463922X.2014.895878
Suhir, E., Lini, S., Bey, C., Salotti, J., Hourlier, S., and Claverie, B. (2015). Probabilistic Modelling of the Concept of Anticipation in Aviation, Volume 16, Issue 1, p. 69-85.