This report was researched and produced by the Northwest Economic Research Center (NERC) with support from Clackamas County Public Health.
Tobacco -- Law and legislation -- Oregon, License system -- Oregon -- Economic aspects, Economic impact analysis
Passage of Senate Bill 754 (Tobacco 21) in August of 2017 raised the tobacco sales age from 18 to 21 in Oregon. However, there is currently no state law requiring retailers to have a license to sell tobacco products within the state. Without a full registry of tobacco vendors, it is difficult to determine whether or not said vendors are complying with the new law. Other counties within Oregon have adopted regional tobacco retail license programs, which help to ensure compliance with Tobacco 21. With this in mind, the Clackamas County Public Health Division requested that the Northwest Economic Research Center (NERC) investigate the potential economic impacts of adopting a county-wide Tobacco Retail License for the Public Health Division to inform decision makers.
To accomplish this, NERC used the modelling software IMPLAN. NERC relied on existing literature for potential effects that cannot be modeled by IMPLAN. It should be noted that, while some implications of Tobacco 21 are discussed, this report is primarily an analysis of the economic impact of tobacco retail licensing (TRL) for Clackamas County.
If TRL goes into effect, Clackamas County would see a reduction in employment of 4.12 Full Time Equivalent (FTE) positions, and a corresponding decreased in gross wages of $129,185. To put these numbers in perspective, in 2016 – the most recent year of IMPLAN data – there were 220,375 FTE employees in Clackamas County and 7,127 FTE employees in the industries included in the analysis. Labor Income was $10,191,352,866 and $204,899,969 respectively.
This only includes the loss of employment to the private sector and does not include the public employees who would be hired to regulate this industry – which would mitigate these effects. Estimates by Health Equity Zone (HEZ) are shown in Appendix A.
The IMPLAN model is static, meaning that the above estimates do not account for dynamic price adjustments of tobacco and nicotine products, long-term health effects of tobacco, or decreases in tobacco revenue due to increased compliance with the minimum legal sales age.
Hulseman, Peter and Willingham, Emma, "Clackamas County: Tobacco License Impact Analysis" (2018). Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports. 35.