Date of Award

11-8-1991

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Civil Engineering (MSCE)

Department

Civil Engineering

Physical Description

1 online resource (2, vi, 134 p.)

Subjects

Hydrology -- Mathematical models, Hydrology -- Statistical methods

Abstract

The basic concepts of hydrologic forecasting using the Streamflow Synthesis And Reservoir Regulation Model of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, auto-regressive-moving-average time series models (including Greens' functions, inverse functions, auto covariance Functions, and model estimation algorithm), and the Kalman filter (including state space modeling, system uncertainty, and filter algorithm), were explored. A computational experiment was conducted in which the Kalman filter was applied to update Mehama local basin model (Mehama is a 227 sq. miles watershed located on the North Santiam River near Salem, Oregon.), a typical SSARR basin model, to streamflow measurements as they became available in simulated real time. Among the candidate AR and ARMA models, an ARMA(l,l) time series model was selected as the best-fit model to represent the residual of the basin model. It was used to augment the streamflow forecasts created by the local basin model in simulated real time. Despite the limitations imposed by the quality of the moisture input forecast and the design and calibration of the basin model, the experiment shows that the new stochastic methods are effective in significantly improving the flood forecast accuracy of the SSARR model.

Description

If you are the rightful copyright holder of this dissertation or thesis and wish to have it removed from the Open Access Collection, please submit a request to pdxscholar@pdx.edu and include clear identification of the work, preferably with URL

Persistent Identifier

https://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/26584

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