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Working Paper

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Cyprus -- Ethnic relations, Greeks -- Cyprus -- History, Ethnic conflict -- Cyprus -- History, Cyprus -- Social conditions, Cyprus -- History -- Cyprus Crisis 1974- -- Analysis


The time frame for a final decision on the Cyprus problem is narrowing very rapidly. The latest peace plan proposed by the U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan, known as the Annan Plan, to solve the problem between the Greek Cypriot (G/Cs) and Turkish Cypriot (T/Cs) communities underwent the last refinements in February 2003 to bridge the gap between the two sides. Yet, despite intense domestic (especially in the Turkish north) and international pressures on the two sides to sign the agreement the Turkish Cypriot leadership rejected the proposal as being insufficient in meeting their demands. Despite the apparent low in negotiations between the two sides, there is still an opportunity to revive the Annan Plan as the basis for negotiated settlement before Cyprus joins the European Union (EU) in 2004. The U.S., the E.U., and the U.N. have all given signals that they are willing to tackle the problem before Cyprus joins the EU in 2004. Given the gravity of the present situation, we provide an expected utility analysis of the problem in an attempt to determine areas of mutual cooperation between the two sides that could resolve the apparent deadlock.


A working paper prepared for presentation at the ISA-Budapest Conference in Budapest, Hungary, June 26-28, 2003.

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