Modeling the Impact of Simulated Educational Interventions on the Use and Abuse of Pharmaceutical Opioids in the United States: A Report on Initial Efforts

Authors

Wayne Wakeland, Portland State UniversityFollow
Alexandra E. Nielsen, Portland State UniversityFollow
Teresa D. Schmidt, Portland State UniversityFollow
Dennis McCarty, Oregon Health & Science UniversityFollow
Lynn Webster, LifeTree Medical
John Fitzgerald, Purdue Pharma L. P.
J. David Haddox, Purdue Pharma L.P.

Sponsor

National Institute on Drug Abuse Grant Number 5R21DA031361-02.

Published In

Health Education & Behavior

Document Type

Post-Print

Publication Date

10-2013

Subjects

Alcohol and substance abuse, Dynamic modeling, Modeling and simulation, Nonlinear dynamics, Substance use, Systems science

Abstract

Three educational interventions were simulated in a system dynamics model of the medical use, trafficking, and nonmedical use of pharmaceutical opioids. The study relied on secondary data obtained in the literature for the period of 1995 to 2008 as well as expert panel recommendations regarding model parameters and structure. The behavior of the resulting systems-level model was tested for fit against reference behavior data. After the base model was tested, logic to represent three educational interventions was added and the impact of each intervention on simulated overdose deaths was evaluated over a 7-year evaluation period, 2008 to 2015. Principal findings were that a prescriber education intervention not only reduced total overdose deaths in the model but also reduced the total number of persons who receive opioid analgesic therapy, medical user education not only reduced overdose deaths among medical users but also resulted in increased deaths from nonmedical use, and a “popularity” intervention sharply reduced overdose deaths among nonmedical users while having no effect on medical use. System dynamics modeling shows promise for evaluating potential interventions to ameliorate the adverse outcomes associated with the complex system surrounding the use of opioid analgesics to treat pain.

Description

This publisher accepted author manuscript (post-print) is archived here with author permission.

Published final edited form:Health Educ Behav. 2013 October ; 40(1 0): 74S–86S.

DOI

10.1177/1090198113492767

Persistent Identifier

https://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/27617

Citation Details

Wakeland, W., Nielsen, A., Schmidt, T. D., McCarty, D., Webster, L. R., Fitzgerald, J., & Haddox, J. D. (2013). Modeling the impact of simulated educational interventions on the use and abuse of pharmaceutical opioids in the United States: a report on initial efforts. Health Education & Behavior, 40(1_suppl), 74S-86S.