Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

It's Mostly Assumptions: Modeling a Pandemic



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COVID-19 has engulfed the planet and decision-makers are dealing with a situation that affects life in extreme proportions. Unfortunately, the virus has given many twists and turns and isn't done yet. This seminar will describe the modeling approach used for a model in Oregon and describe some of the key assumptions needed to provide a glimpse into the future.

Biographical Information

Dr. Graven is the Director of the Office of Advanced Analytics and Lead Data Scientist in OHSU’s Business Intelligence and Advanced Analytics Unit. Graven has a PhD in health economics and applies those modeling skills to build predictive and forecasting models as well as conduct advanced analytics to support quality improvement operations at the OHSU Health. Additionally, as Affiliate Assistant Professor in the OHSU-PSU School of Public Health, Graven teaches health economics and provides mentorship to students in the masters and PhD programs. Since the beginning of the pandemic, Graven has been modeling expected coronavirus hospitalizations and other leading indicators on a weekly basis.


COVID-19 (Disease) -- United States -- Health care, Computational modeling, Communicable diseases -- Epidemiology -- Mathematical models


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It's Mostly Assumptions: Modeling a Pandemic