Document Type


Publication Date

Spring 2018


Ramin Neshati

Course Title

Decision Making

Course Number

ETM 530


Hierarchical decision model, Space flight -- Forecasting, Outer space -- Exploration -- Management, Space launch industry


When it comes to space exploration programs NASA, ISRO, SpaceX, CNSA, JAXA and ESA has made remarkable achievements in the past and is keep making more and more success. The study, on completion, seeks to guide the decision problem of “which space agency has the best future in space exploration?”.

This study will seek to find which space agency has the best future prospect in terms of various perspectives. To find a solution to the stated problem, initially available literature was studied and the probable solutions for the decision problem was enlisted. Data Records from the organization websites were studied to determine financial, impact, technical, track record etc., which was followed by a hierarchical decision model (HDM) by mapping out the different factors that affect the preference of country with orbiting space program. A panel of 6 experts was chosen and were requested for assistance to evaluate the model and then the results were evaluated and compared. After further analysis, additional decision-making changes may be done. Revisiting the opinion of panel of experts may or may not conducted to draw the conclusion in the entire decision-making process.

The biggest drawback of this study is that the data used for quantitative analysis by the panel of experts. The panel doesn’t include individuals from every organization of the alternatives, resulting is lack of confidential information of these agencies. For future research, study based on data sources from every alternative organization would be helpful as that would affect expert preference and opinion.


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