Document Type

Closed Project

Publication Date

Winter 2013


Jisun Kim

Course Title

Technology Forecasting

Course Number

ETM 532/632


Some analysts fear that the semiconductor technology has entered, or is about to enter, the mature stage of its life cycle. In this paper, the authors’ focus is to study a very active sector of the semiconductor industry, the dynamic-random-access memory (DRAM) technology. A fair understanding of the history, applications, limitations and complementary technologies was conducted to suggest a reasonable forecast for the upcoming near future of the technology. The scope was to answer the question of whether, or not, the DRAM technology has reached its maturity and soon needs to be replaced by a newer one. Literature review, experts’ opinion, and the suitable computational method TFDEA, were utilized to conclude the following; The DRAM technology can continue its current trend in the short and medium future terms as long as the improvements in the supportive technologies contribute to make these projections a reality. Should the limits of physics become a definite roadblock, other prospective emerging technologies are undergoing advanced research efforts and may be proposed as an alternative to carry on with the better results delivery trend.


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