Document Type

Closed Project

Publication Date

Winter 2011


Tugrul Daim

Course Title

Technology Forecasting

Course Number

ETM 532/632


Forecasting advanced or emerging technologies by determining their technology diffusion rates is a science and an art because of lack of experiential data. One method to assist in forecasting is data mining and analysis of bibliometric data from a variety of sources such as patents, journal citations, and science awards. This information can then be used in well-known technology diffusion models such as Fisher-Pry where emerging technologies substitute older ones. This paper uses global bibliometric analysis to forecast the growth of advanced or next-generation electronic packaging technologies relying on analogous technology growths.


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