Document Type

Post-Print

Publication Date

2-2007

Subjects

Financial globalization, Capital movements, Financial integration, Economic stability, Monetary policy

Abstract

We consider the origins of global current account imbalances. We first discuss how the expansion of the US current account deficit and the decrease in global real interest rates can be reconciled with the widespread view that American expansionary fiscal policy is partly the source of current trends. We then investigate empirically the medium-term determinants of the current account using a model that controls for factors related to institutional development. In addition to the conventional macroeconomic factors, we examine a series of environmental factors, including the degree of financial openness and the extent of legal development. We find that for industrial countries, the government budget balance is an important determinant of the current account balance; the budget balance coefficient is 0.10 to 0.49 depending on model specifications. These varying estimates lead us to conclude that fiscal factors might be as important as excess savings arising from East Asia.

Description

This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Review of International Economics. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Review of International Economics, Volume 16, Issue 3, p. 479-498 (August 2008). Article is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2008.00741.x

DOI

10.1111/j.1467-9396.2008.00741.x

Persistent Identifier

http://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/20334

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