Sponsor
This project is funded by the State of Oregon through the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD). The contents of this document do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the State of Oregon.
Document Type
Report
Publication Date
6-30-2018
Subjects
Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, Demographic surveys -- Oregon, Population forecasting -- Oregon -- Coos County
Abstract
Different parts of the county experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole.
Coos County’s total population had minimal growth in the 2000s; however, some of its sub-areas experienced faster population growth during this period. Lakeside, for example, posted the highest average annual growth rates at 2.2 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period.
The population growth that did occur in Coos County in the 2000s was largely the result of net in-migration. An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having children at older ages has led to births stagnating in recent years. A larger number of deaths relative to births caused a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2001 to 2016. While net in-migration outweighed natural decrease slightly during the 2000-10 period, in recent years (2014-16) net in-migration has increased, leading to meager population growth.
Total population in Coos County as a whole, as well as within its sub-areas, will likely decrease at a slower pace in the near-term (2018 to 2043) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). Population decline is largely driven by an aging population and natural decrease outpacing net in-migration. Coos County’s total population is forecast to decline by roughly 725 people over the next 25 years (2018-2043) and by more than 3,300 over the entire 50-year period (2018-2068).
Persistent Identifier
https://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/26640
Recommended Citation
Portland State University. Population Research Center; Chun, Nicholas; Rancik, Kevin; Haggerty, Rhey; Ollinger, Joshua; and Rynerson, Charles, "Coordinated Population Forecast for Coos County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2018-2068" (2018). Oregon Population Forecast Program. 36.
https://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/26640
Description
This report is published by the Population Research Center at Portland State University, and is a product of the Oregon Population Forecast Program.
The introductory presentation, preliminary forecast presentation, and Coos County final forecast tables are attached to this document as supplemental files.