Sponsor
This project is funded by the State of Oregon through the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD). The contents of this document do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the State of Oregon.
Document Type
Report
Publication Date
6-30-2018
Subjects
Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, Demographic surveys -- Oregon, Population forecasting -- Oregon -- Curry County
Abstract
Different parts of the county experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole.
Curry County’s total population grew steadily in the 2000s, with an average annual growth rate of .6%. Nearly all of Curry County’s sub-areas followed the same pattern of faster growth between 2000 and 2010, and a slightly slower rate from 2010 to 2018. Although negligible, Port Orford was the only UGB with an average annual growth rate that has increased from 2000 to 2010 rate (0.3 percent), to the 2010 to 2018 rate (0.4 percent).
During the years where Curry County’s annual growth rate has been positive, the population growth was largely the result of substantial net in-migration. An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having children at older ages, has led to births stagnating in recent years. A larger number of deaths relative to births caused natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2001 to 2016. Natural decrease outweighed net in-migration during the later years, bringing population decline from 2009 to 2012, though recent strong net in-migration has led to moderate population growth.
Total population in Curry County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a faster pace in the near-term (2018 to 2043) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by a growing natural decrease that will cut into population growth from net in-migration. Even so, Curry County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 1,800 over the next 25 years (2018-2043) and by more than 2,800 over the entire 50-year period (2018-2068).
Persistent Identifier
https://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/26642
Recommended Citation
Portland State University. Population Research Center; Chun, Nicholas; Rancik, Kevin; Haggerty, Rhey; Ollinger, Joshua; and Rynerson, Charles, "Coordinated Population Forecast for Curry County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2018-2068" (2018). Oregon Population Forecast Program. 38.
https://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/26642
Description
This report is published by the Population Research Center at Portland State University, and is a product of the Oregon Population Forecast Program.
The introductory presentation, preliminary forecast presentation, Curry County final forecast tables and forecast comparison are attached to this document as supplemental files.