Document Type

Report

Publication Date

6-30-2018

Subjects

Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, Demographic surveys -- Oregon, Population forecasting -- Oregon -- Douglas County

Abstract

Different parts of the county experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole.

Douglas County’s total population grew steadily in the 2000s, with an average annual growth rate of .7%; however, some of its sub-areas experienced faster population growth. Canyonville experienced the fastest growth of any UGB, with an average annual growth rate of 3 percent. Only two UGBs, Oakland and Reedsport, saw a slight population decline.

Douglas County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was largely the result of sporadic net in-migration. An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having children at older ages, has led to births stagnating in recent years. A larger number of deaths relative to births caused natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2016. While net in-migration substantially outweighed natural decrease during the 2000 to 2010 period, in recent years (2011-16) the growing number of deaths have curbed net in-migration, leading to steady population growth.

Total population in Douglas County, as a whole as well as within its sub-areas, will likely grow at a faster pace in the near-term (2018 to 2043) compared to the long-term. The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by a growing natural decrease that will cut into population growth from net in-migration. Douglas County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 15,000 over the next 25 years (2018-2043) and by nearly 29,000 over the entire 50-year period (2018-2068).

Description

This report is published by the Population Research Center at Portland State University, and is a product of the Oregon Population Forecast Program.

The introductory presentation, preliminary forecast presentation, forecast comparison and Douglas County final forecast tables are attached to this document as supplemental files.

Persistent Identifier

https://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/26644

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