Sponsor
This project is funded by the State of Oregon through the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD). The contents of this document do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the State of Oregon.
Document Type
Report
Publication Date
6-30-2018
Subjects
Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, Demographic surveys -- Oregon, Population forecasting -- Oregon -- Harney County
Abstract
Different parts of the county experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole.
Harney County’s total population declined in the 2000s, with an average annual growth rate of -0.2 percent; however, the Hines UGB experienced slight population growth during this same period, posting an average annual growth rate of 0.2 percent. The Burns UGB experienced a growth rate of -0.7 percent, which is below that of the county as a whole.
Harney County’s population decline in the 2000s was the result of net out-migration. An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having children at older ages has led to births stagnating and a transition to a natural decrease (more deaths than births). Harney County experienced population loss in a majority of years between 2000 and 2013, though in recent years has grown due to a small net in-migration.
Total population in Harney County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely decline at a slow rate in both the near-term (2018 to 2043) and long-term (2043-2068). This forecasted decline is primarily driven by an aging population and a natural decrease outpacing net in-migration. Harney County’s total population is forecast to decline by 302 over the next 18 years (2018-2043) and by 822 over the entire 50-year period (2018-2068). Most of this population decline is expected in areas outside the UGBs, which is forecasted to decline at a faster rate than either of the UGBs in Harney County.
Persistent Identifier
https://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/26645
Recommended Citation
Portland State University. Population Research Center; Chun, Nicholas; Rancik, Kevin; Haggerty, Rhey; Ollinger, Joshua; and Rynerson, Charles, "Coordinated Population Forecast for Harney County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2018-2068" (2018). Oregon Population Forecast Program. 41.
https://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/26645
Description
This report is published by the Population Research Center at Portland State University, and is a product of the Oregon Population Forecast Program.
The introductory presentation, preliminary forecast presentation, forecast comparison and Harney County final forecast tables are attached to this document as supplemental files.