Document Type

Report

Publication Date

6-30-2019

Subjects

Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, Demographic surveys -- Oregon, Population forecasting -- Oregon -- Wallowa County

Abstract

Different parts of the County experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the County as a whole. UGBs in Wallowa include Enterprise, Joseph, Lostine, and the city of Wallowa.

Wallowa County’s total population had minimal decline in the 2000s; however, population change varied across sub-areas. Enterprise, for example, posted an average annual growth rate of 0.3 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period.

The population decline in the 2000s stemmed from a consistent natural decrease with sporadic stretches of net out-migation. An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having fewer children and having them at older ages has led to births stagnating in recent years. A larger number of deaths relative to births caused a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2001 to 2017, resulting in minimal population change.

Total population in Wallowa County as a whole, as well as within its sub-areas, will likely continue to decline throughout the forecast but at a slightly higher pace in the near-term (2019 to 2044) compared to the long-term. This population decline is largely driven by natural decrease outpacing net in-migration. Wallowa County’s total population is forecast to decline by roughly 380 people over the next 25 years (2019-2044) and by nearly 500 people over the entire 50-year period (2019-2069).

Description

This report is published by the Population Research Center at Portland State University, and is a product of the Oregon Population Forecast Program.

The introductory presentation, preliminary forecast presentation, and Wallowa County final forecast tables are attached to this document as supplemental files.

Persistent Identifier

https://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/29306

Wallowa_County_Sept2018_0.pdf (2440 kB)
Wallowa County Introductory Presentations Sept. 2018

R2_Wallowa_032019.pdf (560 kB)
Wallowa County Preliminary Presentation 3/12/19

Wallowa_Final_Forecast.xlsx (64 kB)
Wallowa County Final Forecast Tables

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