Presentation Type
Poster
Start Date
5-8-2024 11:00 AM
End Date
5-8-2024 1:00 PM
Subjects
Wildfire risk.
Advisor
Max Nielsen-Pincus
Student Level
Masters
Abstract
Policy can and has been used as a tool to reduce the risk communities experience from natural hazards by limiting development in areas most vulnerable. How and where development occurs directly influences the amount of risk a community experiences from natural hazards like hurricanes, earthquakes, flash floods, and wildfire among others. Development patterns that contribute to increased wildfire risk mostly occur within the wildland urban interface, a land use type where development is at the fringes or intercept of wildland areas and is more flammable due to surrounding vegetation, slope, local climate, and other factors. For this research, Deschutes County in Oregon was selected as the study area due to its fire prone landscape, fast growing population, and Oregon’s unique land use planning program which limits sprawling development patterns and could be used as a tool to reduce wildfire risk to communities in the state. To better understand how development patterns impact risk, past and potential future development trajectories were determined. Past trajectories were determined using land use data (NLCD) and wildland urban interface data (University of Wisconsin-Madison's SILVIS Lab) in ArcGIS Pro and potential future trajectories were determined using synchronous surveys and interviews with local land use planners in the county. The potential future development trajectories learned in the interviews will be contrasted with other potential future development scenarios using Envision, a GIS based modeling software, to understand how risk varies across different development scenarios and wildfire regimes. This research will help to inform decision makers and development choices in fire prone landscapes to reduce wildfire risk.
Creative Commons License or Rights Statement
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Included in
Wildland Urban Interface Growth and Development Potentials in Deschutes County
Policy can and has been used as a tool to reduce the risk communities experience from natural hazards by limiting development in areas most vulnerable. How and where development occurs directly influences the amount of risk a community experiences from natural hazards like hurricanes, earthquakes, flash floods, and wildfire among others. Development patterns that contribute to increased wildfire risk mostly occur within the wildland urban interface, a land use type where development is at the fringes or intercept of wildland areas and is more flammable due to surrounding vegetation, slope, local climate, and other factors. For this research, Deschutes County in Oregon was selected as the study area due to its fire prone landscape, fast growing population, and Oregon’s unique land use planning program which limits sprawling development patterns and could be used as a tool to reduce wildfire risk to communities in the state. To better understand how development patterns impact risk, past and potential future development trajectories were determined. Past trajectories were determined using land use data (NLCD) and wildland urban interface data (University of Wisconsin-Madison's SILVIS Lab) in ArcGIS Pro and potential future trajectories were determined using synchronous surveys and interviews with local land use planners in the county. The potential future development trajectories learned in the interviews will be contrasted with other potential future development scenarios using Envision, a GIS based modeling software, to understand how risk varies across different development scenarios and wildfire regimes. This research will help to inform decision makers and development choices in fire prone landscapes to reduce wildfire risk.