Document Type

Working Paper

Publication Date



Plywood industry -- Economic aspects -- Oregon, Forest products industry -- Economic aspects -- Oregon, Lumber trade -- Oregon -- Forecasting

Physical Description

30 pages


The lumber and plywood industries in the Pacific Northwest were particularly affected by the 1979-1982 construction recession. A subsequent recovery in output has occurred, but employment levels have remained relatively depressed. The potential for a planned reduction in the amount of timber sold from the national forests in the region also exists, giving rise to some uncertainty about the future prospects for these industries. This paper identifies the major structural factors affecting the performance of lumber and plywood producers in the region. It then proceeds to develop and simulate a set of alternative scenarios covering the 1986-1990 period to examine the effects of variations in the behavior of these major structural factors. The results indicate that increases in output and employment relative to 1984 levels are very unlikely, and under certain conditions substantial declines could occur.


Catalog Number DP87-5.

A product of the Center for Urban Studies, College of Urban and Public Affairs, Portland State University.

Persistent Identifier