Document Type

Technical Report

Publication Date



Centennial School District, Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, School enrollment -- Oregon -- Portland -- Forecasting, Demographic surveys -- Oregon -- Portland


In August 2021 the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) prepared high, middle, and low scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Centennial School District (CSD) for the 10‐year period between 2021‐22 and 2030‐31. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. To facilitate the boundary review process, PRC also provided forecasts of CSD students residing within each existing elementary attendance area, consistent with the middle series, to CSD staff and to FLO Analytics. Forecasts for current schools under their existing boundaries and grade configurations were also prepared and provided to the CSD and to FLO. The district‐wide and school forecasts are included in this report.

October enrollment counts are typically used as the baseline, or launch year, for a long‐range enrollment forecast. However, because October 2020 enrollment was affected by remote learning due to the COVID‐19 pandemic, our forecast models use October 2019 enrollment as a baseline, expecting a “return to normal” in the long run. We know that the 2021‐22 school year is not yet “normal” and that some families have continued to homeschool or attend online charters or private schools. There is always uncertainty around enrollment forecasts; if families who chose not to enroll in CSD schools during the pandemic do not return, that will increase the risk that enrollments will fall below the middle series forecasts. However, because the chief purpose of these forecasts is to ensure that adequate school capacity will exist under revised boundaries and school configurations, it is prudent to base the forecasts on long‐term trends rather than the 2020‐21 and 2021‐22 enrollments.

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