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Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), 2005

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Data envelopment analysis, Technology -- Management, Technological innovations -- Management


Since its origin in 2001, technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA) has been tested with a number of applications. This paper uses a previously published technology forecast comparison of U.S. fighter jets between the years 1944 and 1982 to compare TFDEA to basic regression. Both techniques use aircraft introduced between 1944 and 1960 to predict the first flights of those fighters introduced between 1960 and 1982. TFDEA was found to better predict the first flight dates than the forecast using regression. These results indicate that TFDEA may be a powerful new technique for predicting complex technological trends and time to market for new products


This is the publisher's final pdf. Copyright © 2005 by PICMET. Paper delivered at Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), 2005.

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