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R&D Management

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Technological forecasting, Data envelopment analysis, Research and development projects -- Management


The aim of this study is to provide a foundation for researchers and managers to further discuss and resolve difficulties associated with R&D target-setting. While multiple studies mention the difficulty of R&D target-setting, few studies exist which compile reasons for these difficulties; nor do they address this issue in any detail. This paper provides what appears to be one of the first studies outlining reasons for R&D target-setting difficulties through a literature review; then also provides an initial set of analyses and results after applying an emerging quantitative method, Technology Forecasting Using Data Envelopment Analysis (TFDEA) addressing these difficulties, step-by-step to commercial airplanes. Results include determining the state-of-art in commercial airplane technology and technological rate-of-change variants in setting R&D targets.


This is the author's original version prior to peer review. The final published version can be found in R&D Management, Vol. 42, Issue 4, pp. 327-341, 2012. Available at SSRN:



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