First Advisor

Kenneth J. Dueker

Date of Publication


Document Type


Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.) in Urban Studies


Urban Studies and Planning




Local transit -- Ridership -- Mathematical models, Local transit -- Planning -- Mathematical models



Physical Description

ii, vii, 176 leaves: ill. 28 cm.


It is observed that transit riders are responding to service changes while transit planning is responding to ridership changes, or that transit patronage and service supply are highly interrelated. It is also noticed that transit riders transfer from route to route, the introduction of new service may draw some riders from the existing routes, which implies transit patronage on a route is also affected by other parallel and intersecting routes. An analytic tool is needed to examine these complex relationships in the transit system. This study has developed a quantitative model by incorporating these interactions into a simultaneous system. The simultaneity of transit demand, supply and the interrelationship of inter-route effects are addressed in a three-equation simultaneous model: a demand equation, a supply equation and an equation for competing routes. These equations are estimated simultaneously using the three-stage-least-squares estimation method. The model is estimated at the route-segment level by the time of a day, and by the inbound and outbound directions. Data from Portland, Oregon metropolitan area are used as an extended case study. The socioeconomic and demographic data are allocated to an one-quarter-mile distance service area around a transit route by utilizing the technique of Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The data allocation significantly reduces the measurement error. Inter-route relationships are also identified using GIS. The estimation results show that a service change on a route increases the transit patronage on that route, but it also decreases the ridership on its competing routes, so the net effect of that service improvement is smaller than the ridership increase on the subject route. A conventional single equation model under-estimates the ridership responses on the subject route, and over-estimates the net patronage response. This study is the first research to discuss the net effects of a service change at the route level. The model can be implemented for system-level policy analysis and route-level service and land use planning. It is especially useful for "what-if" scenario analysis at the route level to simulate the ridership impacts of service and land use changes.


In Copyright. URI: This Item is protected by copyright and/or related rights. You are free to use this Item in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s).


If you are the rightful copyright holder of this dissertation or thesis and wish to have it removed from the Open Access Collection, please submit a request to and include clear identification of the work, preferably with URL

Persistent Identifier