Portland State University. Department of Engineering and Technology Management
Tugrul U. Daim
Date of Award
Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.) in Technology Management
Engineering and Technology Management
1 online resource (xiv, 322 pages)
Wind power -- Pakistan -- Planning, Energy development -- Pakistan -- Planning, Fuzzy logic -- Industrial applications, Strategic planning -- Mathematical models
In this modern era, energy is a key element required for sustainable development and prosperity of a society. Pakistan is an energy deficient country facing problems due to the shortage of over 4000 MW of electricity. The national energy sector is heavily dependent on imported fossil-fuel resources. The energy crisis is negatively affecting all economic and business activities, and it is widely recognized as a severe obstacle to growth and poverty reduction in the country. Establishment of wind farms can help to overcome the energy crisis.
In this research, a national level wind energy roadmap is developed through scenario planning. Multiple future scenarios are developed using the fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) approach. This research has extended technology roadmapping through FCM-based scenario analysis. Building scenarios with FCM is a very new approach, and for the first time FCM-based scenarios are developed for the wind energy sector of Pakistan. Based on these multiple scenarios, a technology roadmap has been developed. This research approach is applied to the wind energy sector of Pakistan as a case study.
This approach has been used to establish objectives and national targets of the roadmap. Then in a systematic way, critical roadmap barriers are identified against each scenario, and appropriate action items have been proposed to overcome barriers and promote deployment of wind energy projects in Pakistan. The objectives and targets of the roadmap have been translated into action items. The technology roadmap has four layers: strategic objectives, targets, barriers, and action items. Expert panels have been utilized to develop scenarios and technology roadmaps. Validation of this research is also carried out using experts. This new approach has helped to develop a robust roadmap and enabled anticipation of a wide range of possible future outcomes.
This research fills an important gap by combining scenario planning and technology roadmapping techniques in future studies, and it has enhanced flexibility of the developed roadmap. Moreover, for the first time multiple and plausible FCM-based scenarios are developed, which combine the benefits of both qualitative and quantitative analysis. Moreover, the technology roadmap for the wind energy sector of Pakistan is developed with a comprehensive study of practical obstacles and barriers towards deployment of wind energy technology. The research findings suggest that policy, financial, economic, lack of competition with conventional power plants, and technical are the most critical barriers towards deployment of wind energy projects in the country. Appropriate action items required to overcome the roadmap barriers against each scenario are also proposed in the developed roadmap. The experts also assigned responsibilities for the key roadmap action items to the major stakeholders.
Amer, Muhammad, "Extending Technology Roadmap through Fuzzy Cognitive Map-based Scenarios: The Case of the Wind Energy Sector of Pakistan" (2013). Dissertations and Theses. Paper 999.