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Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, Demographic surveys -- Oregon, Population forecasting -- Oregon -- Morrow County


Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole.

Morrow County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of less than half percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Boardman, the most populous UGB, and Irrigon posted the highest average annual growth rates at 1.0 and 0.5 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period.

Morrow County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the direct result of a substantial natural increase (Figure 12). Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of births relative to deaths caused a natural increase in every year from 2000 to 2014. In more recent years (2010 to 2015) net in-migration has increased, bringing with it population more growth.

Total population in Morrow County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by a larger base population—the denominator to calculate growth rates. As baby boomers age into the mid-term of the future, natural increase will reach its low point around 2045 and then rebound.

Even so, Morrow County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 1,900 over the next 19 years (2016-2035) and by almost 4,900 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period.


This report is published by the Population Research Center at Portland State University, and is a product of the Oregon Population Forecast Program.

Please be aware that the final population forecasts, which are in both the report and the tables, differ from the preliminary forecasts due to feedback and discussion after the March 2016 preliminary forecast presentation, prior to the release of the proposed forecasts. The preliminary forecasts were adjusted.

The introductory presentation, preliminary forecast presentation, and Morrow County final forecast tables are attached to this document as supplemental files.

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R2_Morrow_201509-10.pdf (1243 kB)
Introductory presentation

MorrowCountyPreliminaryPresentation_rev.pdf (621 kB)
Preliminary forecast presentation

Morrow_County_Final_Forecast_Tables.ods (51 kB)
Final forecast tables