This project is funded by the State of Oregon through the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD).
Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, Demographic surveys -- Oregon, Population forecasting -- Oregon -- Clatsop County
Different parts of the county experience differing growth patterns. Local trends within the UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole.
Clatsop County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of less than one half of one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). However, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth. Warrenton, the third most populous UGB, and Gearhart, posted average annual growth rates of 2.0 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively.
Clatsop County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was largely the result of net in-migration coupled with a small natural increase. An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. While women in Clatsop County are choosing to have children at marginally older ages, they are also choosing to have slightly more children than in the near past, leading to a small increase in births. The larger number of births relative to deaths caused natural increase (more births than deaths) in most, but not all, years from 2000 to 2015. While net in-migration outweighed declining natural increase during the early and middle years of the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years—greatly reducing population growth in the late 2000s and early 2010s. In more recent years (2013 to 2015) net in-migration has increased, bringing with it population growth (Figure 12).
Total population in Clatsop County and within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2017 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend expected to contribute to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration.
Even so, Clatsop County’s total population is forecast to increase by roughly 2,350 over the next 18 years (2017-2035) and by more than 4,480 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2017-2067). UGB sub-areas that showed positive population growth in the 2000s are expected to continue growing during the forecast period, with the exception of Astoria whose population is expected to decline in the longer term.
Portland State University. Population Research Center; Jurjevich, Jason R.; Chun, Nicholas; Rancik, Kevin; Proehl, Risa; Michel, Julia; Harada, Matt; Rynerson, Charles; and Morris, Randy, "Coordinated Population Forecast for Clatsop County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2017-2067" (2017). Oregon Population Forecast Program. 27.