This project is funded by the State of Oregon through the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD).
Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, Demographic surveys -- Oregon, Population forecasting -- Oregon -- Tillamook County
Different parts of the county experience differing growth patterns. Local trends within the UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole.
Tillamook County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of less than one-half percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). However, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Nehalem, Manzanita, and Bay City posted average annual growth rates greater than one percent at 2.5, 1.5, and 1.2 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period.
Tillamook County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the direct result of net in-migration counteracting the County’s natural decrease. An aging population led to an increase in deaths, but also in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women choosing to have fewer children and having them at older ages led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of deaths relative to births caused natural decrease (more deaths than births) in all years, from 2000 to 2015, except 2007. While net in-migration outweighed natural decrease during the early and middle years of the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years—bringing population growth nearly to a halt by 2010. In more recent years (2010 to 2015) net in-migration has increased, bringing population growth with it (Figure 12).
Total population in Tillamook County and its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2017 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration.
Even so, Tillamook County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 2,800 over the next 18 years (2017-2035) and by more than 6,600 over the entire 50 year forecast period (2017-2067). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to continue experiencing strong rates of population growth during the forecast period.
Portland State University. Population Research Center; Jurjevich, Jason R.; Chun, Nicholas; Rancik, Kevin; Proehl, Risa; Michel, Julia; Harada, Matt; Rynerson, Charles; and Morris, Randy, "Coordinated Population Forecast for Tillamook County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2017-2067" (2017). Oregon Population Forecast Program. 33.