This project is funded by the State of Oregon through the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD).
Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, Demographic surveys -- Oregon, Population forecasting -- Oregon -- Yamhill County
Different parts of the county experience differing growth patterns. Local trends within the UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole.
Yamhill County’s total population grew rapidly during the 2000s, with average annual growth rates above one and a half percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, most of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. With the exception of Amity, Sheridan, and Willamina, all other sub-areas grew at a faster rate than the county.
Yamhill County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was largely the result of substantial net in-migration. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of births relative to deaths caused a natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2000 to 2015. While net in-migration outweighed natural increase during the early and middle years of the last decade, the gap between these two numbers has narrowed more recently, slowing population growth at the turn of the decade. In more recent years (2014 and 2015) net in-migration has increased, bringing with it population growth (Figure 12).
Total population in Yamhill County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2015 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to natural increase transitioning into natural decrease (more deaths than births) during the middle of the forecast horizon. As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration.
Even so, Yamhill County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 28,500 over the next 18 years (2017-2035) and by more than 70,000 over the entire 50 year forecast period (2017-2067). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period.
Portland State University. Population Research Center; Jurjevich, Jason R.; Chun, Nicholas; Rancik, Kevin; Proehl, Risa; Michel, Julia; Harada, Matt; Rynerson, Charles; and Morris, Randy, "Coordinated Population Forecast for Yamhill County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2017-2067" (2017). Oregon Population Forecast Program. 35.