Coordinated Population Forecast for Deschutes County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2018-2068
This project is funded by the State of Oregon through the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD). The contents of this document do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the State of Oregon.
Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, Demographic surveys -- Oregon, Population forecasting -- Oregon -- Deschutes County
Different parts of the county experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole.
Deschutes County’s total population grew rapidly in the 2000s, with an average annual growth rate of just over 3 percent between 2000 and 2010. During this period, significant growth occurred within the urban growth boundaries. The UGBs of Sisters and La Pine posted the highest average annual growth rates at 7.8 and 6.3 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period while areas outside the UGBs experienced an aggregate average annual growth rate of 1.0 percent.
While Deschutes County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was largely the result of substantial net in-migration, natural increase (more births than deaths) has accounted for a small, but waning, share of growth. Declining natural increase is largely reflective of the statewide trend of an aging population not only leading to an increase in deaths but also in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having children at older ages has led to births stagnating in recent years. Since 2012, net in-migration has risen dramatically through the economic expansion, while birth rates have continue to decline, leading to strong population growth.
Total population in Deschutes County will likely grow at a faster pace in the near-term (2018-2043) compared to the long-term (2043-2068). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by a growing natural decrease that will cut into population growth from net in-migration. Even so, Deschutes County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 114,000 over the next 25 years (2018-2043) and by more than 245,000 over the entire 50 year forecast period (2018-2068).
Portland State University. Population Research Center; Chun, Nicholas; Rancik, Kevin; Haggerty, Rhey; Ollinger, Joshua; and Rynerson, Charles, "Coordinated Population Forecast for Deschutes County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2018-2068" (2018). Oregon Population Forecast Program. 39.
This report is published by the Population Research Center at Portland State University, and is a product of the Oregon Population Forecast Program.
The introductory presentation, preliminary forecast presentation, forecast comparison and Deschutes County final forecast tables are attached to this document as supplemental files.