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Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, Demographic surveys -- Oregon, Population forecasting -- Oregon -- Douglas County
Different parts of the county experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole.
Douglas County’s total population grew steadily in the 2000s, with an average annual growth rate of .7%; however, some of its sub-areas experienced faster population growth. Canyonville experienced the fastest growth of any UGB, with an average annual growth rate of 3 percent. Only two UGBs, Oakland and Reedsport, saw a slight population decline.
Douglas County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was largely the result of sporadic net in-migration. An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having children at older ages, has led to births stagnating in recent years. A larger number of deaths relative to births caused natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2016. While net in-migration substantially outweighed natural decrease during the 2000 to 2010 period, in recent years (2011-16) the growing number of deaths have curbed net in-migration, leading to steady population growth.
Total population in Douglas County, as a whole as well as within its sub-areas, will likely grow at a faster pace in the near-term (2018 to 2043) compared to the long-term. The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by a growing natural decrease that will cut into population growth from net in-migration. Douglas County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 15,000 over the next 25 years (2018-2043) and by nearly 29,000 over the entire 50-year period (2018-2068).
Portland State University. Population Research Center; Chun, Nicholas; Rancik, Kevin; Haggerty, Rhey; Ollinger, Joshua; and Rynerson, Charles, "Coordinated Population Forecast for Douglas County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2018-2068" (2018). Oregon Population Forecast Program. 40.