Sponsor
This project is funded by the State of Oregon through the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD). The contents of this document do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the State of Oregon.
Document Type
Report
Publication Date
6-30-2018
Subjects
Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, Demographic surveys -- Oregon, Population forecasting -- Oregon -- Jackson County
Abstract
Different parts of the county experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole.
Jackson County’s total population grew rapidly in the 2000s, with an average annual growth rate of just over 1 percent; however, some of its sub-areas experienced faster population. Central Point and Eagle Point posted the highest average annual growth rates at 2.9 and 5.6 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period, while Jacksonville and Shady Cove also experienced growth rates above that of the county as a whole. All other sub-areas experienced average annual growth rates at or below that of the county as a whole.
Jackson County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was largely the result of substantial net in-migration. An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having children at older ages has led to births stagnating in recent years. A larger number of births relative to deaths caused natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2000 to 2014, though increasing deaths and stagnating births has transitioned the county to a natural decrease since 2015. Even still, net in-migration is far outpacing natural decrease, leading to steady population growth in more recent years (2012-15).
Total population in Jackson County, as a whole as well as within its sub-areas, will likely grow at a faster pace in the near-term (2018 to 2043) compared to the long-term. The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by a growing natural decrease that will cut into population growth from net in-migration. Jackson County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 53,000 over the next 25 years (2018-2043) and by more than 101,500 over the entire 50 year forecast period (2018-2068).
Persistent Identifier
https://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/26646
Recommended Citation
Portland State University. Population Research Center; Chun, Nicholas; Rancik, Kevin; Haggerty, Rhey; Ollinger, Joshua; and Rynerson, Charles, "Coordinated Population Forecast for Jackson County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2018-2068" (2018). Oregon Population Forecast Program. 42.
https://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/26646
Description
This report is published by the Population Research Center at Portland State University, and is a product of the Oregon Population Forecast Program.
The introductory presentation, preliminary forecast presentation, forecast comparison and Jackson County final forecast tables are attached to this document as supplemental files.
*Please be aware that the final population forecasts differ from the preliminary forecasts due to a challenge made during the 45-day Review Process.