This project is funded by the State of Oregon through the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD). The contents of this document do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the State of Oregon.
Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, Demographic surveys -- Oregon, Population forecasting -- Oregon -- Josephine County
Different parts of the county experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole.
Josephine County’s total population grew steadily in the 2000s, with an average annual growth rate of slightly less than 1 percent between 2000 and 2010; however, its sub-areas experienced faster population growth. Cave Junction and Grants Pass posted average annual growth rates of 2.1 and 1.6 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period while the area outside of the UGBs experienced negligible growth.
Josephine County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of net in-migration. An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having children at older ages has led to births stagnating in recent years. A larger number of deaths relative to births caused a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2001 to 2016, cutting into the county’s population growth from net in-migration. In recent years (2012-16) net in-migration has increased, outweighing natural decrease and creating strong population growth.
Total population in Josephine County, as a whole as well as within its sub-areas, will likely grow at a faster pace in the near-term (2018 to 2043) compared to the long-term. The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by a growing natural decrease that will cut into population growth from net in-migration. Even so, Josephine County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 12,500 over the next 25-years (2018-2043) and by more than 23,000 over the entire 50-year period (2018-2068).
Portland State University. Population Research Center; Chun, Nicholas; Rancik, Kevin; Haggerty, Rhey; Ollinger, Joshua; and Rynerson, Charles, "Coordinated Population Forecast for Josephine County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2018-2068" (2018). Oregon Population Forecast Program. 44.