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Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, Demographic surveys -- Oregon, Population forecasting -- Oregon -- Lake County
Different parts of the county experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole.
Lake County’s total population grew steadily in the 2000s, with an average annual growth rate of .6%; however, its UGBs experienced population decline. Lakeview and Paisley posted average annual growth rates at -1.2 and -0.2 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period while the area outside of the UBGs experienced an average annual growth rate of 2.3 percent.
Lake County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was largely the result of sporadic net in-migration. An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having children at older ages has led to births stagnating in recent years. A larger number of deaths relative to births caused natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2001 to 2016. While natural decrease outweighed net in-migration during the early and late years of the last decade, in recent years (2012-16) net in-migration has increased, leading to meager population growth.
Total population in Lake County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a faster pace in the near-term (2018 to 2043) compared to the long-term. The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by a growing natural decrease that will cut into population growth from net in-migration. Lake County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 375 over the next 25 years (2018-2043) and by 400 over the entire 50-year period (2018-2068).
Portland State University. Population Research Center; Chun, Nicholas; Rancik, Kevin; Haggerty, Rhey; Ollinger, Joshua; and Rynerson, Charles, "Coordinated Population Forecast for Lake County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2018-2068" (2018). Oregon Population Forecast Program. 46.