This project is funded by the State of Oregon through the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD).
Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, Demographic surveys -- Oregon, Population forecasting -- Oregon -- Malheur County
Different parts of the County experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the County as a whole. UGBs in Malheur County include Adrian, Jordan Valley, Nyssa, Ontario, and Vale.
Malheur County’s total population declined slightly in the 2000s; however, some of its sub-areas experienced minor population growth during this period.
The population growth that did occur in Malheur County in the 2000s was largely the result of natural increase (more deaths than births). An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having fewer children and having them at older ages has led to births stagnating in recent years. A larger number of births relative to deaths caused a natural increase) in every year from 2001 to 2017, though natural increase waned throughout this period, resulting in minimal population change.
Total population in Malheur County as a whole, as well as within its sub-areas, will likely decrease at a similar pace in the near-term (2019 to 2044) compared to the long-term. Population decline is a product of net out-migration outpacing natural increase. Malheur County’s total population is forecast to decline by 655 people over the next 25 years (2019-2044) and by roughly 1,620 people over the entire 50-year period (2019-2069).
Portland State University. Population Research Center; Chun, Nicholas; Rancik, Kevin; Haggerty, Rhey; Jurjevich, Jason R.; and Rynerson, Charles, "Coordinated Population Forecast for Malheur County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2019-2069" (2019). Oregon Population Forecast Program. 47.